Argentina

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Argentina's map is generous. It is a large, temperate country of about 46 million people¹, far from the world's conflicts, and Moody's credits strong exports and rising foreign investment in energy and mining⁶. Its only territorial dispute is with the United Kingdom over the Falklands, or Malvinas, which it lost a war over in 1982¹³. Detailed, sourced data on its farmland and energy reserves was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A rich endowment far from danger.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Argentina has about 46 million people with a median age of about 33², older and more urban than most of Latin America. Unemployment rose to 7.9% in the second quarter of 2026⁵. Reliable recent data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A capable population, held back for decades by an economy that could not keep prices stable.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean, predictable government are weak. Argentina scored 36 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down 1 point, ranking 104th of 182 countries⁷. Its record of economic management is worse: the 1998–2002 depression ended the peso's dollar peg and brought a default on foreign debt that it did not fully exit until 2016^15,16. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, President Javier Milei, who won the run-off on 19 November 2023 by 11 points⁹, has done what he promised. The budget moved from a deficit of 5.3% of GDP in 2023 to surplus in 2024, inflation fell from 219.9% in 2024 to 41.9% in 2025, and debt fell from 153.4% of GDP in 2023 to a forecast 69.3% in 2026³. Voters rewarded him in the October 2025 midterms, giving his party 93 deputies and 20 senators⁸. Moody's said default risk has declined materially⁶. The cost is slow growth and rising unemployment^3,5.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Argentina has been a democracy since military rule ended on 10 December 1983¹², and power changes hands through elections, most recently in 2023⁹. Corruption is middling to high, with a score of 36 and a rank of 104th of 182⁷. Comparable data on crime and the rule of law was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Stable democratic order, with weak institutions.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Argentina's politics are polarised between Peronism, which has won 10 of the 14 presidential elections it was allowed to contest since 1946¹¹, and its opponents, now led by Milei. The 2001 crisis brought riots and the fall of a government¹⁵. Milei's midterm victory in 2025⁸ shows support for his course, for now. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence.

Why does the world need this country?

Argentina matters in South America and in world food and energy markets. Its economy is about US$768 billion in 2026³. Its credibility with markets is recovering: Moody's, Fitch and S&P all upgraded it in 2026, and Moody's cited strong exports and rising foreign investment in energy and mining⁶. Its weight is still well below Brazil's in the region, and it projects little military power⁴.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: continued disinflation, with inflation still forecast at 32.5% in 2026³; growth and jobs, as unemployment rises⁵; and access to markets, which further upgrades would bring⁶. Want: investment in energy and mining⁶; and its claim to the Falklands, or Malvinas, which it says it inherited from Spain in 1816¹⁴. Fear: a return of Peronist economics after the 2027 election, the risk Moody's flags⁶; and another default like that of the 1998–2002 depression¹⁵.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Argentina's recovery depends on Western markets and creditors, whose confidence the 2026 upgrades reflect⁶. Its one territorial dispute is with the UK over the Falklands, where the islanders voted 99.8% in 2013 to remain British and the UK cites self-determination¹⁴. Detailed, sourced data on its trade partners and its relations with Brazil, the United States and China was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Room to manoeuvre exists; it is not yet tested.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Argentina's armed forces are small and underfunded. SIPRI puts military spending at 0.56% of GDP in 2025⁴. Its last war, over the Falklands in 1982, ended in surrender after 74 days, with 649 Argentine military personnel killed¹³. It faces no military threat today, and its budget priorities lie elsewhere³. A country that has chosen not to be a military power.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Argentina has turned. The IMF records debt falling from 153.4% of GDP in 2023 to a forecast 69.3% in 2026, a budget in surplus since 2024, and inflation down from 219.9% in 2024 to a forecast 32.5% in 2026 and 21.2% in 2027³. Growth was 4.5% in 2025, but the IMF expects only 2.1% in 2026³, and unemployment has edged up to 7.9%⁵. Upgrades from all three agencies in 2026 confirm the direction⁶. Improving, but not yet secure.