How countries are judged
Every country is assessed on the same eleven models in four layers, so any two profiles can be compared. The lens is Lee Kuan Yew's: judge nations by power, capability and trajectory rather than rhetoric.
1. Givens
What the country was dealt: the map and the people on it. Slow to change, impossible to wish away.
- Geography
- What does the map enable, and what does it threaten? Indicators: Location, borders, neighbours, chokepoints, sea access, natural resources.
- People
- Is the population growing, skilled and staying? Indicators: Population, median age, fertility, education outcomes, unemployment, emigration of skilled workers.
2. Multipliers
What the country does with its hand. Culture, leadership, order and cohesion decide whether the givens compound or leak; relevance is the result the world sees.
- Culture
- What habits does the society reward? Indicators: Social trust, work and savings norms, attitudes to education, rule-following, violence.
- Leadership
- Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent? Indicators: Selection of elites, technocratic capacity, continuity, track record of top office-holders.
- Order
- Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability? Indicators: Corruption indices, judicial independence, policing, property rights, local government function.
- Cohesion
- Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they? Indicators: Ethnic, religious, regional and class divides; inequality; recent unrest; peaceful transfers of power.
- Relevance
- Why does the world need this country? Indicators: GDP and growth, exports, niche industries, critical minerals, infrastructure, credit rating.
3. External game
How the country plays among others: what it needs, who it leans on, and whether it can defend itself.
- Interests (described, not scored)
- What does it need, want and fear? Indicators: Trade dependencies, energy and food security, stated and revealed foreign policy goals.
- Balance of power
- Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges? Indicators: Alliances, bloc memberships, bases, major trade partners, active disputes.
- Strength
- Can it deter, or does it depend on others? Indicators: Defence spending as share of GDP, force readiness, nuclear status, defence industry.
4. Filters
Where it is heading, judged by deeds rather than plans.
- Trajectory
- Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast? Indicators: 10-year growth, reform momentum, demographic direction, deeds vs stated plans.
Rating scale
Ten models get a score from 1 to 5 (1 critical weakness, 2 weak, 3 mixed, 4 strong, 5 major strength), a trend (improving, stable or declining) and a confidence level (high, medium or low). The overall verdict is written, not averaged: Order and People weigh most.
Sources, verification and updates
Profiles are researched and written by Claude, an AI model, and updated automatically every week with no human approval step. Headline figures are refreshed from IMF, UN, ILO and SIPRI data; the news is scanned for events; full reviews run on a rotation. Every new or changed claim must be supported by a short excerpt from its source, every link is checked, scores move at most one point per update without a cited major event, and verdicts change only in full reviews. Every change is listed on the Changes page.