Bahamas

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map is the Bahamas' fortune and its threat. Its islands lie close to the United States, and mass tourism took off after Havana was closed to American tourists in 1961⁷. The same position made it a shipping crossroads for centuries⁷. But it sits in the path of Atlantic hurricanes: Dorian struck Abaco and Grand Bahama at Category 5 in September 2019, devastating the north-west⁷. The IMF counts natural disasters among its main risks⁴. A lucky location with a dangerous climate.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 400,000, with a median age of about 36^1,2. They are well off: the IMF puts income per head at about US$44,000 in 2026³. But jobs are scarcer than wealth suggests: unemployment was 9.3% in the second quarter of 2025⁴. Data on education and skills was not gathered, hence medium confidence. A prosperous people in an economy with too few jobs outside tourism.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are good for the region. The Bahamas scored 64 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down one point, ranking 29th of 182⁵. It has a long democratic record: majority rule came in 1967 and independence in 1973, and governments have changed by election since^7,8. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, the Davis government has stabilised the finances. Moody's upgraded the Bahamas to Ba3 in April 2026, citing sustained strengthening in fiscal performance⁶. Growth was about 2.8% in 2025, driven by tourism⁴. Voters rewarded the government with a second term in May 2026, breaking a long tradition of one-term governments⁸. But debt remains about 74% of GDP and unemployment 9.3%⁴. Sound management, not yet transformation.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The Bahamas is a stable democracy. Power has passed peacefully by election since independence, and the 2026 election saw the opposition held to eight seats without dispute^7,8. The IMF judges systemic financial risks moderate⁴. Crime data was not gathered, hence low confidence. Its offshore financial sector, built on bank secrecy and no income taxes, has grown under that stable order⁷. Political order is firm; public safety is not assessed here.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

The Bahamas is a small nation with a shared history. Slavery ended in 1834, and majority rule came in 1967 under Lynden Pindling⁷. Politics is a two-party contest that changes hands peacefully⁸. Survey data on social trust was not gathered, hence low confidence. Its economy, built on tourism and offshore finance since the 1950s, has given most people a stake in stability⁷. A settled society without deep fault lines visible in the data.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs the Bahamas little. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$18bn³. Its weight lies in tourism and offshore finance, the twin pillars of its economy since the 1950s⁷. It matters to the United States as a close neighbour and holiday destination⁷. It belongs to no major bloc, and SIPRI records no recent figure for its defence spending. Small, comfortable and peripheral to world affairs.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: tourists, whose spending drives growth and revenue⁴; and resilience to hurricanes such as Dorian in 2019^7,4. Want: to cut debt from about 74% of GDP and keep the Ba3 rating it won in April 2026^4,6; and more jobs, with unemployment at 9.3%⁴. Fear: a global slowdown that hits tourism, and natural disasters, the two downside risks the IMF names⁴.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

The Bahamas lives in the shadow of the United States, and benefits. Its tourism grew on American visitors, especially after Havana closed to them in 1961⁷. It was a British colony until 1973 and remains a Commonwealth realm⁷. Data on its security ties was not gathered, hence low confidence. A small state with one dominant neighbour and no need to balance.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

The Bahamas has almost no hard power. SIPRI publishes no recent figure for its military spending, so its defence effort cannot be measured here. Its economy is about US$18bn³. Its security rests on its neighbours and partners, not its own forces. Readiness data was not gathered, hence low confidence. A state that relies on others for protection, as its size requires.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, the Bahamas is steady after recovery. Tourism drove growth of about 2.8% in 2025, and the government's fiscal gains earned a Moody's upgrade in April 2026^4,6. But the IMF expects growth to slow towards 1.5% over the medium term, with debt still about 74% of GDP⁴. Its exposure to hurricanes remains^4,7. Holding its ground, with little sign of faster growth.