Bangladesh

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map gives Bangladesh people and little room. Its borders were drawn by the partition of Bengal between India and Pakistan in 1947⁷. Its neighbour Myanmar drove hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees into it from 2017⁷. About 178 million people live on its land¹. Its garment exports reach world markets, making it the second-largest exporter of ready-made clothing⁵. Data on climate and flood exposure was not gathered here, hence low confidence. A crowded delta squeezed between neighbours.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 178 million, with a median age of about 26^1,2. They are the country's main asset: rural women working in garments made Bangladesh the world's second-largest exporter of ready-made clothing⁵. But two million young people enter the labour market each year, and job creation is weak⁵. Poverty has risen for four consecutive years⁵. Official unemployment was only 4.63% in late 2024, which hides how many are underemployed^9,5. A large, young workforce the economy is failing to absorb.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are weak. Bangladesh scored 24 on Transparency International's 2025 index, up one point, ranking 150th of 182⁶. Politics has been a contest between two main parties, with coups and military rule under Ziaur Rahman and Ershad, and a one-party state in 1975⁷. Hasina's government fell in 2024 and she was found guilty of crimes against humanity⁷. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Bangladesh has a new government with an old record to overcome. Sheikh Hasina's government delivered growth for years but was forced from power by a mass uprising in 2024^7,9. In February 2026 an election was held, the first truly competitive one in years, and the BNP and its allies won at least 212 of 299 seats¹⁰. Tarique Rahman, who returned from nearly two decades abroad, became prime minister¹⁰. Moody's raised its outlook in September 2026, citing easing political uncertainty and stronger reserves⁸. Too soon to judge by results.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Bangladesh is calmer than it was, and fragile. Months of deadly unrest in 2024 toppled the government and disrupted daily life and the garment industry^10,9. The 2026 election produced a clear outcome, seen as key to stability¹⁰. Its political history is violent: Sheikh Mujib made it a one-party state in 1975, and President Ziaur Rahman was killed by troops in 1981⁷. The Awami League, which ruled for 15 years, was barred from the 2026 vote¹⁰. Order restored by an election, not yet by institutions.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Bangladesh shares a strong national identity, born of the 1952 language movement and the 1971 war of independence⁷. Its politics, however, are a feud: Hasina was found guilty of crimes against humanity after fleeing, and her party was barred from the 2026 election^7,10. The Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies won 70 seats, a sign of a new force in politics¹⁰. Inequality has risen as growth became uneven⁵. Survey data on social trust was not gathered, hence low confidence. One nation, deeply split by party.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Bangladesh mainly for clothing. It is the world's second-largest exporter of ready-made garments⁵. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$506bn³. It hosts the Rohingya refugees driven out of Myanmar, a burden for the region⁷. Its 178 million people make it one of the world's most populous states, though its income per head is only about US$2,900^1,3. A large economy with a narrow role in the world.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: jobs for two million new workers a year⁵; a sound banking system and more revenue, which the World Bank names as priority reforms⁵. Want: export diversification beyond garments⁵; investor confidence after the turmoil¹⁰; and a better credit rating, now B2 with a stable outlook⁸. Fear: renewed political violence^10,7; persistent inflation and rising poverty⁵; and the cost of the Rohingya refugees⁷.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Bangladesh has to manage larger neighbours with little leverage. It was carved out by the partition of 1947 and won independence in 1971 in a war against Pakistan⁷. Its neighbour Myanmar drove hundreds of thousands of Rohingya into it from 2017, a crisis it cannot resolve alone⁷. It needs open markets for its garment exports, the second-largest in the world⁵. Data on its ties with India, China and the United States was not gathered, hence low confidence. A large state that must stay on good terms with everyone.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Bangladesh spends little on its forces. SIPRI puts military spending at about 0.8% of GDP in 2025, on an economy of about US$506bn^4,3. Its army has shaped its politics more than its defence, with coups and military rule in its history⁷. Readiness data was not gathered, hence low confidence. Large in numbers of people, small in military weight.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Bangladesh has stalled. Poverty has risen for four consecutive years, inflation is persistent, and the World Bank calls the near-term outlook weak⁵. Growth that once made it one of the world's fastest-growing economies has slowed^7,3. There are signs of stabilisation: Moody's cited stronger reserves and record remittances in September 2026⁸. A long rise interrupted, with recovery not yet shown.