Bolivia

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map gave Bolivia great riches and took its sea. It has significant natural gas and vast reserves of tin, silver, zinc and lithium⁵. But it lost its coastline and nitrate fields in the War of the Pacific, and more land in the Chaco War against Paraguay in the 1930s⁷. Landlocked since, it must export through its neighbours. Its gas wealth has faded as production collapsed through underinvestment¹⁰. Rich ground, hard access.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 13 million, with a median age of about 26^1,2. Their living standards rose fast in the boom: between 2006 and 2014, income per head doubled and extreme poverty fell from 38% to 18%⁷. Income per head is now about US$4,200³. Urban unemployment was 3.4% in mid-2026⁹. Data on education and skills was not gathered, hence low confidence. A young people whose gains are at risk in a shrinking economy.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are weak. Bolivia scored 28 on Transparency International's 2025 index, unchanged, ranking 136th of 182⁶. Its history is one of military rule and coups until the 1980s, and Evo Morales resigned in a political crisis in 2019⁷. Fuel subsidies fed a black market in smuggled fuel¹⁰. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Bolivia's new president has started the repairs his predecessors avoided. MAS governments sustained growth through public spending after 2014, which depleted reserves and raised debt⁵. Rodrigo Paz won the October 2025 runoff with 54.5%¹¹. He secured Bolivia's first multi-year IMF programme since 2006, worth $1.9bn, and began removing fuel subsidies¹⁰. Fitch and others upgraded Bolivia in early 2026⁸. But his party lacks a majority in Congress¹⁰. A promising start, not yet a record.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Bolivia's order is fragile. Military rule and a series of coups lasted until the 1980s, and a political crisis forced Evo Morales out in 2019⁷. In 2026 education workers protested in La Paz, and unions warned that the IMF deal's subsidy cuts could trigger renewed protests¹⁰. Crime data was not gathered, hence medium confidence. A democracy that settles disputes at the ballot box and on the road blockade.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Bolivia's politics have long been divided by region and identity. Morales, the first Indigenous president, won 54% in 2005, and his movement dominated for 20 years^7,11. By 2025 MAS had collapsed to two seats in the lower house¹⁰. The country's main union federation opposes the IMF programme¹⁰. Survey data on social trust was not gathered, hence low confidence. A nation that has changed direction sharply, with many still to be persuaded.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Bolivia mainly for minerals. It holds vast reserves of lithium, along with tin, silver and zinc⁵. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$54bn³. Its gas once supplied neighbours, but production has collapsed¹⁰. Its lithium could matter more if it can attract investment, which the new government is seeking with IMF backing¹⁰. A resource holder still looking for a way to use its resources.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: dollars, after reserves ran out and gas exports collapsed^5,10; and an end to fuel subsidies that drained the treasury, as the IMF programme requires¹⁰. Want: investment in its minerals, including lithium⁵; and better credit ratings, which rose in early 2026⁸. Fear: protests that could derail reform¹⁰; a return to the instability that ended Morales's rule in 2019⁷; and default, which it was close to months before its upgrades⁸.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Bolivia has turned back to Western lenders. Its 2026 IMF programme is its first since 2006¹⁰. It lost its coast in the War of the Pacific and land to Paraguay in the Chaco War, which still shape relations with its neighbours⁷. Data on its ties with China, Russia and the United States was not gathered, hence low confidence. A small state seeking money wherever it can find it.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Bolivia has little hard power. SIPRI puts military spending at about 1.2% of GDP in 2025, on an economy of about US$54bn^4,3. Its army has a long history of coups, more than of defending borders⁷. Readiness data was not gathered, hence low confidence. It lost its wars with its neighbours, and cannot now afford to rebuild its forces. Weak in arms as in money.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Bolivia is still falling but has started to turn. The economy has contracted since 2024, and the IMF expects a 3% contraction in 2026^5,3. But the new government has secured IMF money and begun cutting fuel subsidies, and three rating agencies upgraded the country in early 2026 after it had been on the brink of default^10,8. Unemployment has risen slightly, to 3.4% in urban areas⁹. A painful bottom, with the climb not yet begun.