Cabo Verde

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Cabo Verde's geography gives it little. It is an Atlantic archipelago of about half a million people¹, uninhabited until Portuguese settlers arrived in the 15th century⁹. It lacks natural resources, only five of its ten main islands normally support significant agriculture, and over 90% of its food is imported⁹. Its asset is position: its harbour at Mindelo made it a commercial centre on major shipping routes⁹. A poor endowment, partly offset by location.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Cabo Verde has a small population with a median age of about 29.5² and GDP per head of about US$6,556³, high for West Africa. It is one of the most developed countries in Africa⁹. The modelled unemployment rate is 11.9%⁵. Reliable data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A capable people with too few jobs at home.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean, predictable government are strong. Cabo Verde scored 62 on Transparency International's 2025 index, unchanged, ranking 35th of 182 countries⁸, among the best in Africa. It has been a stable representative democracy since the early 1990s⁹. Its fiscal discipline has produced primary surpluses that S&P expects to continue⁶. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Cabo Verde's governments have managed a hard position well. Debt fell from 144.6% of GDP in 2022 to 115.4% in 2025, and the budget moved into surplus in 2025³. S&P raised the rating to B+ in February 2026, expecting further primary surpluses⁶. In May 2026 voters replaced the party that had governed for ten years, and PAICV leader Francisco Carvalho became prime minister-designate⁷. The test of the new government is to keep the discipline.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Cabo Verde is orderly and lawful. It has been a stable representative democracy since the early 1990s and is one of the most democratic countries in Africa⁹. Its armed forces fought only in the independence war of 1974 to 1975 and now focus on combating international drug trafficking⁹. Corruption is low for the region, with a score of 62⁸. Comparable crime data was not gathered for this assessment.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Cabo Verde's society accepts its institutions. Its two main parties, PAICV and MpD, alternate in power⁹, most recently in May 2026, when PAICV won 37 of 72 seats and unseated the MpD⁷. Turnout was 46.46%⁷. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A small society that settles its disputes at the ballot box.

Why does the world need this country?

Cabo Verde is one of the smallest economies in Africa, about US$3.4 billion in 2026³, with about half a million people¹. Its relevance is as an example of good governance and as a mid-Atlantic stopping point on shipping routes⁹. It has no economic or military weight beyond that. A well-run state too small to matter much to others.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: continued fiscal discipline to bring debt, still 109.9% of GDP in 2026, down further³; open trade, since over 90% of its food is imported⁹; and tourism and foreign investment, on which its economy focuses⁹. Want: further rating upgrades, with S&P's outlook positive⁶. Fear: shocks that cut tourist flights or raise fuel and food costs; and a new government loosening the budget⁷.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Cabo Verde has no enemies and keeps good relations with all. It depends on outside partners for food, tourists and investment⁹, and its finances on lenders who have rewarded its discipline⁶. Its history ties it closely to Portugal, from which it gained independence on 5 July 1975⁹. Detailed, sourced data on its relations with the EU, the United States and China was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Cabo Verde has almost no military power. SIPRI puts its military spending at 0.66% of GDP in 2025⁴, on an economy of about US$3.4 billion³. Its armed forces fought only in the war of independence of 1974 to 1975 and now focus on combating drug trafficking⁹. It faces no military threat and relies on its partners for security. A state that needs no army, and has little.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Cabo Verde is rising. The IMF records growth of 7.0% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025, with 5.0% forecast for 2026 and 2027, and debt falling from 144.6% of GDP in 2022 to a forecast 103.6% in 2027³. S&P upgraded the rating to B+ in February 2026 with a positive outlook, expecting primary surpluses to continue⁶. Steady improvement from a weak starting point.