Cambodia

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Cambodia lies between two stronger neighbours. Angkor was once the seat of an empire that controlled much of Indochina⁹. By the 17th and 18th centuries, Siamese and Vietnamese dominance had reduced the Khmer crown to a vassal, and in the early 19th century Cambodia lost its sovereignty under joint suzerainty⁹. That pressure persists: fighting along the 800-km border with Thailand in 2025 killed more than 100 people on both sides⁵. The Mekong gives it fertile land, but the map gives it little security.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

About 18 million people with a median age of about 26^1,2. They are poor: the IMF puts GDP per head at about US$3,000 in 2026³. Many have worked abroad: nearly one million migrant workers returned from Thailand when fighting broke out, and labour groups say secure jobs are lacking⁵. The Khmer Rouge years still shape the population: between 1.67 and 1.87 million died, 21% to 24% of the 1975 population, by one estimate⁹. No recent unemployment figure was found, hence low confidence. A young people with too few good jobs at home.

What habits does the society reward?

Institutional habits are very weak. Cambodia scored 20 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down one point, ranking 163rd of 182⁸. Scam compounds run by criminal gangs operated from Cambodia, using trafficked workers forced to cheat strangers online⁷. The alleged kingpin, Chen Zhi, held Cambodian nationality, which the government says was not legally obtained⁷. Moody's cites weak institutions in its rating⁶. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Cambodia's rulers have delivered peace and some growth, but at a high cost to the state's integrity. The Cambodian People's Party has been in power since 1979; Hun Sen ruled for decades and handed over to his son Hun Manet in 2023⁹. Hun Manet's government arrested and extradited Chen Zhi to China in January 2026, and says the crackdown will continue⁷. Moody's raised the outlook to stable in 2026, citing affordable debt⁶. But the border war and its aftermath have hurt trade and jobs⁵. A dynasty cleaning up what it allowed.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The state holds firm political control but not the rule of law. The main opposition party was dissolved before the 2018 election, giving the ruling party every seat⁹. Transnational scam networks operated on Cambodian soil; a crackdown began in 2026⁷. On the border, fighting in July and December 2025 displaced nearly one million people at its peak, and a December ceasefire has largely held⁵. Unexploded munitions affect nearly 350 villages⁵. Crime data was not gathered, hence medium confidence. Tight political control, weak law.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Cambodia is a settled nation with a terrible memory. The Khmer Rouge years of 1975–1979 brought mass killing and targeted persecution of minorities such as the Cham and Vietnamese⁹. Since the 1991 Paris settlement the country has been at peace internally⁹. The border war with Thailand rallied national feeling: a minister says calling border land lost is treason, and the government demands the return of land through diplomacy and international law⁵. Politics allow little dissent⁹. A united nation under a single party.

Why does the world need this country?

Cambodia matters to others mainly as a problem or a client. Its economy was about US$54bn in 2026³. Its scam compounds made it a target of US, British and Chinese action against fraud networks⁷. Its border war with Thailand drew a truce brokered by the US and Malaysia in July 2025⁵. Its close cooperation with China on crime, and the extradition of Chen Zhi to Beijing, show where its closest ties lie⁷. A small state that draws attention for the wrong reasons.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: to reopen trade with Thailand or replace it, as exports to Thailand fell from about $448m to $357m in the first half of 2026⁵; and jobs for nearly a million returned migrants⁵. Want: the return of border land through negotiation and international law⁵; continued US tariff relief, which helped Moody's raise its outlook⁶; and credit for its crackdown on scam networks⁷. Fear: renewed war with Thailand⁵; unexploded munitions in border villages⁵; and sanctions linked to scam compounds⁷.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Cambodia leans on China and struggles with its neighbours. It cooperates closely with China on crime and extradited Chen Zhi to Beijing⁷. It also cooperates on transnational crime with the United States, South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand, its foreign minister says⁷. The 2025 truce with Thailand was brokered by the US and Malaysia, and talks have since largely stalled⁵. Thailand says its troops hold frozen frontline positions under the ceasefire; Cambodia says their occupation violates it⁵. A weak state with a strong patron and a hostile border.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Cambodia's armed forces are modest. SIPRI puts military spending at about 1.45% of GDP in 2025, on an economy of about US$54bn^4,3. In three weeks of fighting with Thailand in 2025, Thai forces ended up holding positions in disputed border areas⁵. About 3,000 people applied for military service as conscription enforcement began⁵. Readiness data was not gathered, hence low confidence. Too weak to hold its own against its larger neighbour.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Cambodia has lost momentum. The World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast to 3.9%, citing the border conflict, disrupted labour markets and remittances, and a property downturn⁵. The IMF forecasts 3%³. Moody's expects growth to moderate and stabilise at a lower rate⁶. Exports to Thailand fell and imports from Thailand dropped sharply⁵. The scam crackdown may clean up the economy, but it also removes a source of money⁷. A slowing economy with a closed border.