Chad

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map is harsh. Chad faces the acceleration of desertification and the drying up of Lake Chad, and conflicts in neighbouring countries threaten its security⁶. Agriculture, about 40% of GDP, is repeatedly hit by drought, floods, conflict and displacement⁶. Its oil, about 76% of exports, has reached the sea since 2003 through a pipeline across Cameroon^6,8. Its eastern border with Sudan, closed in 2026, is the front line of another country's war¹¹. Libya once annexed its northern Aouzou strip, until the International Court of Justice ruled for Chad in 1994⁸. A large, dry country with enemies on several sides.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 21.6 million, with a median age of about 16^1,2. The state has failed to build its people. Chad's Human Capital Index is 0.30: a child born today will be 70% less productive as an adult than one with full education and health care⁶. Maternal mortality, at 856 deaths per 100,000 live births, is among the world's highest⁶. Extreme poverty rose to 36.5% in 2024, and about 88% of jobs are informal⁶. The ILO's modelled unemployment rate of 1.1%⁵ means little here. A young population with almost nothing invested in it.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are poor. Chad scored 22 on Transparency International's 2025 index, up one point, ranking 157th of 182⁷. Power has changed hands mostly by force: a coup killed the first president in 1975, Hissène Habré seized power in 1982 and was later convicted of crimes against humanity, and Idriss Déby toppled him in 1990⁸. Activists, party members and journalists face intimidation and arrest¹⁰. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, President Mahamat Idriss Déby has secured power better than he has served the country. His father, Idriss Déby, died fighting rebels in 2021⁸; he won the 2024 election, which the opposition criticised for irregularities¹⁰. In 2025 constitutional changes extended the presidential term to seven years and removed term limits, and his main opponent, Succès Masra, was sentenced to 20 years^10,6. He ended military cooperation with France, whose last troops left in January 2025⁹. But growth per head was negative in 2025 and extreme poverty is rising⁶. A ruler consolidating power while the country stands still.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Order is under pressure from outside and within. In 2026 Sudan's war spilled over: clashes killed five Chadian soldiers, Chad closed the border, and a drone strike from Sudan killed 17 people, including mourners at a funeral¹¹. Intercommunal violence between herders and farmers killed dozens in the south and east in 2025¹⁰. Boko Haram has attacked Chad's shore of Lake Chad since 2015⁸. No one has been held to account for deaths from celebratory gunfire after the 2024 election, or for the killing of opposition leader Yaya Dillo in a security raid¹⁰. A state that holds the capital, but not every border.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Chad's fault lines have fuelled its wars. After independence, the banning of parties triggered violent opposition in the north, which grew into a guerrilla war from 1966⁸. Rebellions have recurred since, and in 2008 a rebel offensive reached the streets of the capital⁸. Today intercommunal violence between herders and farmers persists in the south and east¹⁰, and refugees from Sudan add pressure on host communities^10,6. The political opposition has been neutralised rather than included¹⁰. Survey data on social trust was not gathered, hence low confidence. A country held together by its army.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Chad for security more than for its economy. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$25bn³. Its oil is modest⁶. For about 70 years it hosted French troops, until the last left in January 2025⁹. It hosts large numbers of refugees from Sudan, the Central African Republic and Nigeria⁶, and sits on the edge of Sudan's war¹¹. Its army has fought Boko Haram and once forced Libya out of the north⁸. A pivot of regional security, not of world affairs.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: oil revenue, which provides 41% of government revenue and is falling as production declines⁶. Need: a closed and quiet eastern border, as Sudan's war sends drones and refugees across it¹¹. Want, for the president: power without limits, secured by the 2025 constitution¹⁰. Want: freedom to choose partners after ending military ties with France⁹. Fear: Sudan's war spreading into Chad¹¹; rebels on its borders, as in 2008 and 2021⁸; quarrels with Niger, which in October 2026 accused it of a deadly drone strike that Chad denies, saying Niger harbours Chadian rebels¹²; and floods and drought¹⁰.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Chad has turned away from its old patron without finding a new one. France, whose troops helped it fight northern rebels in 1973 and drive out Libya in 1987, left its last base in January 2025 after Chad ended military cooperation^8,9. Its oil depends on the pipeline through Cameroon⁸. Its neighbourhood is hostile: Sudan's war spills across the border¹¹, and in October 2026 Niger accused it of a drone strike and Chad accused Niger of sheltering Chadian rebels¹². Libya was a long-time adversary until the 1994 court ruling on Aouzou⁸. A hard state among unstable neighbours, with no clear protector.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Chad's army is its main institution and one of the region's more combative forces. SIPRI puts military spending at 3.19% of GDP in 2025⁴, and spending rose 11.6% in 2025 to 23% of domestic revenue⁶. It pushed Libya out of most of the north in 1987 and has fought Boko Haram⁸. But it could not stop rebels reaching the capital in 2008 without French help, and President Idriss Déby died fighting a rebel advance in 2021⁸. In 2026 it deployed to the Sudanese border after cross-border attacks¹¹. Data on readiness is limited, hence medium confidence. A fighting army that is stretched on every side.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Chad is slipping. The economy grew 3.4% in 2025, but -0.1% per head, as oil output declined⁶. The IMF expects 4.5% in 2026³. Extreme poverty rose by 2.6 points to 36.5% between 2023 and 2024⁶. Military spending is rising faster than revenue⁶. Politically, the room for change has narrowed with the end of term limits and the jailing of the main opponent¹⁰. Sudan's war adds refugees and attacks¹¹. Growth too slow to outrun a population this young.