Colombia

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map gives Colombia resources and hard terrain. It won independence at Boyacá in 1819, but its first federation broke apart by 1830, and Panama seceded in 1903⁷. Its remote, conflict-affected regions have long sheltered armed groups^5,7. It is exposed to natural shocks: the World Bank lists earthquake reconstruction and a possible super El Niño among its risks⁵. Geographic data was not gathered here, hence low confidence. A big, rich and hard-to-govern country.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 54 million, with a median age of about 33^1,2. Poverty fell to 33.1% in 2025 as jobs grew and inequality fell⁵. But unemployment rose to 9.4% in August 2026 from 8.6% a year earlier¹⁰. Income per head is about US$10,700³. Data on skills and migration was not gathered, hence medium confidence. A young, large workforce in an economy that has stopped building its productive base.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are weak. Colombia scored 37 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down two points, ranking 99th of 182⁶. Its history has been shaped by armed conflict: the Thousand Days' War killed an estimated 100,000 and La Violencia up to 300,000⁷. Drug cartels bribed or murdered officials until the Medellín cartel broke up in the 1990s⁷. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, the outgoing government weakened Colombia's finances. Weak revenues and rigid spending eroded fiscal space, the fiscal rule was suspended, and downgrades followed⁵. S&P cut the rating to BB- in April 2026, citing persistent fiscal imbalances and lost predictability⁹. Growth has relied on demand and fiscal support, while investment stayed below pre-pandemic levels⁵. Abelardo de la Espriella, elected in June 2026, inherits the repair job¹¹. The record to date is of discipline lost.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Colombia has fought its way to partial peace. Murders reached a 40-year low the year the government signed its peace agreement with the FARC, and the rate fell 73% from 1991 to 2020, though it remains among the highest in the world⁸. Regional violence is still a risk the World Bank names⁵. The June 2026 runoff was close but its count was confirmed¹¹. Recent crime data was not gathered, hence medium confidence. Order in the cities, contested in the countryside.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Colombia is split almost in half. Abelardo de la Espriella won the June 2026 runoff with 49.6% in the initial count, less than one point ahead of the left's Iván Cepeda¹¹. Its history of civil wars, from the Thousand Days' War to La Violencia, has left deep divisions⁷. Inequality has fallen but remains high, and poverty is 33.1%⁵. Survey data on social trust was not gathered, hence medium confidence. A democracy whose two halves distrust each other.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Colombia as a large regional economy and a frontline in the drug trade. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$573bn³. Its fight with cartels and their successor trafficking groups matters to the United States and Europe⁷. Its fight against armed groups has long drawn in the United States, whose pressure on the cartels over extradition was met with violence⁷. Important in its region, not beyond it.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: fiscal repair, after the fiscal rule was suspended and the rating fell to BB-^5,9; and investment, with FDI at a 15-year low⁵. Want: to rebuild after earthquake damage⁵; and to reduce unemployment, which rose to 9.4%¹⁰. Fear: regional violence and armed groups⁵; a super El Niño⁵; and political polarisation after a runoff decided by less than one point¹¹.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Colombia has long worked with the United States against the drug trade: US pressure for extradition of traffickers drew a violent response from the cartels⁷. Its ceasefire with the FARC was signed in Havana in 2016¹². Data on its trade and security ties was not gathered, hence low confidence. A middle power in its region that leans on Washington.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Colombia has one of the region's larger armed forces. SIPRI puts military spending at about 3.2% of GDP in 2025, on an economy of about US$573bn^4,3. It has 455,461 active military personnel, built up over decades of war with guerrillas⁸. They were built for internal conflict. Readiness data was not gathered, hence low confidence. A strong army for an internal fight.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Colombia is drifting. Growth was 2.6% in 2025 and the World Bank expects 2.3% in 2026, with fiscal consolidation keeping growth below potential⁵. Investment and FDI are weak, and the rating has been cut repeatedly^5,9. Poverty is falling, but unemployment rose in 2026^5,10. A new government offers a chance to change course. Stable, without momentum.