Comoros

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The Comoros is an archipelago of three main islands at the northern end of the Mozambique Channel in the Indian Ocean⁵. It is the third-smallest African country by area and one of the most densely populated countries in the world⁵. A fourth island, Mayotte, voted against independence in 1974 and remains French⁵. Its position on the channel gives it some strategic interest, but it has little land and few resources beyond export crops such as vanilla and ylang-ylang⁵. Small, crowded and scattered.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The Comoros has a young population, with a median age of about 20.7², and GDP per head of about US$1,859³. It ranks in the medium quartile of the Human Development Index, and inequality is low for its region, but poverty remains widespread in rural areas; between 2009 and 2014 about 19% lived below the US$1.90 poverty line⁵. Many have emigrated, and remittances from the diaspora have reduced poverty⁵. Sourced data on schooling was not gathered for this assessment. A people whose best prospects are abroad.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits of rule-bound politics are weak. The Comoros has experienced more than 20 coups or attempted coups since independence, with several heads of state assassinated⁵. Transparency International scored it 20 in 2025, down one point, ranking 163rd of 182⁶. The 2018 constitutional referendum was widely contested and boycotted by the opposition⁵. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group. Politics has been settled by force or by disputed votes more often than by agreed rules.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Azali Assoumani, who first seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999⁵, has given the islands relative quiet and steady if modest growth, 3.8% in 2025³. The Comoros chaired the African Union from February 2023⁵. But he has extended his rule repeatedly: a contested 2018 referendum, re-election in 2019, and a disputed re-election with 63% in January 2024; in 2025 his party took 28 of 33 seats and the opposition rejected the results⁵. Stability purchased at the cost of open politics.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The Comoros is calmer than in its first decades, when coups were frequent and heads of state were assassinated⁵. The secession of Ndzwani and Mwali in 1997 led to bloody fighting⁵, and in 2008 a military operation removed Anjouan's rebel leader⁵. Since then there has been no comparable conflict. But elections remain disputed and the opposition rejects the results⁵. Comparable crime data was not gathered for this assessment. Quiet, but fragile.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

The Comoros is a nation of islands that do not always want to be one state. In 1997 Ndzwani and Mwali declared independence in an attempt to return to French rule, which France rejected⁵. Anjouan's leader had to be removed by force in 2008⁵. The country also disputes Mayotte, which voted to stay with France⁵. The population is almost entirely Muslim and Comorian⁵. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment. A shared identity strained by island rivalries.

Why does the world need this country?

The Comoros carries little weight. Its economy is about US$1.7 billion³. It is the only Arab League member entirely in the southern hemisphere, and it chaired the African Union in 2023⁵. Its location at the mouth of the Mozambique Channel gives it some strategic value, and its claim to French-held Mayotte keeps a dispute with France alive⁵. A small voice in larger bodies.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: remittances from its diaspora, about 20% of GDP in 2023⁵; jobs for a young population; and stability among its islands⁵. Want: sovereignty over Mayotte, which it claims with backing from the African Union and the UN, and which France administers after the island's votes to remain French⁵. Fear: renewed island secessionism, as in 1997⁵; coups, of which it has had more than 20⁵; and unrest over disputed elections⁵.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

France is both the Comoros's protector and its adversary. A defence treaty gives French naval protection of its waters, military training and air surveillance, and France keeps a small base on Mayotte⁵. Yet the Comoros claims Mayotte, with backing from the African Union and the UN, while France has vetoed Security Council resolutions affirming Comorian sovereignty and made Mayotte a department in 2011 after a referendum there⁵. It belongs to the AU and the Arab League⁵. A small state managing a dependence it resents.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

The Comoros has almost no military power. It has a small standing army, a 500-member police force and a 600-member defence force⁵, and relies on a defence treaty with France for protection of its waters and air surveillance⁵. SIPRI publishes no recent spending figure for it. Its armed forces have mattered mainly in domestic politics, through repeated coups⁵. A state that cannot defend itself and does not need to against any neighbour.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, the Comoros is inching forward. The IMF records growth rising from 2.0% in 2021 to 3.8% in 2025, with 2.9% forecast for 2026, inflation down from 12.4% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2025, and debt of about 31% to 35% of GDP³. Remittances have reduced poverty⁵. But growth this slow does little for a young population, and politics remains disputed⁵. Slow progress, not transformation.