Costa Rica

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map gives Costa Rica two coasts and a quiet place on the isthmus. It borders the Caribbean to the east and the Pacific to the west⁷. Its free trade zones, exporting medical devices and services, have made the most of its position⁵. But a crime surge has hit this historically peaceful country⁸. Geographic risk data was not gathered, hence medium confidence. A good location that no longer guarantees safety.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about five million, with a median age of about 36^1,2. Incomes have risen steadily, making it a high-income economy in 2025, and poverty fell to 15.2%⁵. But inequality is high, with a Gini of 48.8, and only 51.1% of working-age people are employed, as women's participation stays low in a rapidly ageing society⁵. Unemployment was 6.3% at the end of 2025⁵. A prosperous people with too few at work.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are strong for the region. Costa Rica scored 56 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down two points, ranking 46th of 182⁶. It has had uninterrupted democracy since 1948, the region's most stable, and a strong commitment to institutions^7,5. The rebels who won its 1948 civil war abolished the army and handed power to the elected president in 1949⁷. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Costa Rica's governments have managed the economy well and crime poorly. Deficits have fallen gradually through prudent management, and Moody's raised the rating to Ba2 in September 2025^5,9. Growth reached 4.6% in 2025⁵. But crime surged under President Chaves, and voters still chose his ally, Laura Fernández, with 48.3%, to continue his confrontational approach⁸. Her party won 31 of 57 seats, short of the supermajority she sought¹⁰. Sound economics; security unresolved.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Costa Rica's order has weakened. A crime surge in recent years made security the main issue of the 2026 campaign in a historically peaceful nation⁸. The new government sought powers to declare states of emergency that could temporarily limit civil liberties to fight crime¹⁰. Its democracy is intact: it has been uninterrupted since 1948⁷. Crime data was not gathered, hence medium confidence. Firm institutions, a rising threat beneath them.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Costa Rica has long been a cohesive society, without an army or a history of civil conflict since 1948⁷. Inequality is high, and the gap between the free trade zones and the rest of the economy affects wages⁵. The 2026 election gave one party both the presidency and Congress for the first time since 1990, a sign of a shift in politics¹⁰. Survey data on social trust was not gathered, hence low confidence. Settled, but less so than it was.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Costa Rica mainly as a model and a supplier. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$115bn³. Its exports of medical devices and services drove 4.6% growth in 2025⁵. It joined the OECD in 2021, and its record of stable democracy without an army is an example in its region^5,7. Small in power, larger in example.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: safety, after a crime surge that dominated the 2026 election⁸. Want: investment-grade status, towards which Moody's Ba2 upgrade was a step^9,5; more people at work, with employment at 51.1%⁵; and continued export growth from its free trade zones⁵. Fear: rising crime⁸; erosion of its democratic institutions¹⁰; and an ageing population with low participation⁵.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Costa Rica has no army and relies on law and partners. It abolished its military in 1948⁷. It is a member of the OECD since 2021⁵. Data on its security partnerships was not gathered, hence low confidence. Its fight against a crime surge will need help from partners⁸. A small, unarmed state that depends on international order.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Costa Rica has no army. The junta that won the 1948 civil war abolished the military, and SIPRI records no military spending^7,4. Its economy is about US$115bn³. Its police face a crime surge that has made security its main political issue⁸. Readiness data was not gathered, hence low confidence. A deliberate choice to have no hard power, now tested by criminals rather than states.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Costa Rica is rising economically. Income per head grew about 3% a year from 2004 to 2024, it became high-income in 2025, and growth reached 4.6% that year⁵. The rating has improved⁹. The IMF expects about 3.3% growth in 2026³. Against that, crime has surged and participation in work has fallen^8,5. Upward in wealth, downward in safety.