Côte d'Ivoire

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Côte d'Ivoire's map is one of West Africa's best. It has a long Atlantic coast, the port city of Abidjan, and fertile forest land that makes it a giant in cocoa. Its export base also includes gold, oil, cashews and rubber, which Fitch credits with narrowing the current account deficit⁵. The weak side of the map is the north, which borders Mali and Burkina Faso, where a Sahel insurgency has spread; related attacks in coastal West Africa have nearly tripled¹¹. A rich southern coast with an exposed northern frontier.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Côte d'Ivoire's population of about 33.5 million is among the youngest in the world, with a median age near 18.5^1,2. That is a large future workforce, but only if it is educated and employed. The modelled unemployment rate is just 2.3%¹⁰, which says more about how many people survive in informal work than about how many have good jobs. Comparable, current data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A demographic dividend still to be earned.

What habits does the society reward?

Public integrity is middling and slipping. Côte d'Ivoire scored 43 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down two points, ranking 76th of 182 countries¹², better than many of its neighbours but far from the cleanest states. A long record of disciplined economic policy, which brought the country through an IMF programme to a low risk of debt distress⁴, shows that the state can keep to hard rules. Data on work norms and social trust is thin, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Alassane Ouattara's government has delivered. Growth has run at around 6% a year, with 6.0% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025³. It completed its IMF programme in June 2026, and debt was reclassified to low risk of distress⁴. Fitch upgraded the rating to BB in December 2025, saying the country had left political risk behind⁵. When world cocoa prices crashed, it cut the farmgate price from 2,800 to 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram⁷. The weakness is political: he won a fourth term after his main rivals were barred from running⁶. Effective, but personal.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The state has restored order since the civil war and contained the jihadist threat in the north: there have been no attacks in Côte d'Ivoire since mid-2022, after the government responded with a comprehensive package of measures¹³. Corruption is middling, with a score of 43 and a rank of 76th of 182¹². Political rules are bent toward the incumbent: key opposition figures, Tidjane Thiam and Laurent Gbagbo, were barred from the 2025 presidential race⁶. Public order is solid; the rule of law in politics is weaker.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Côte d'Ivoire has been at peace for more than a decade, but political divisions remain sharp. The 2025 election went ahead without the two best-known opposition candidates, leaving Ouattara a virtually unchallenged path to re-election⁶. His record of stability and growth is real⁵, but so is the narrowing of the political contest. The cut in the guaranteed cocoa price, from a record 2,800 to 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram⁷, hits a large rural population. Reliable data on social trust is limited, hence low confidence. Calm, but brittle around elections.

Why does the world need this country?

Côte d'Ivoire matters most as the heart of the world's cocoa supply: its farmgate price decisions move global markets, and its cocoa board has made forward sales of more than a million tonnes⁷. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$110 billion³, a large economy for West Africa. Its strong credit standing, BB from Fitch and S&P and Ba2 from Moody's⁸, makes it a benchmark borrower in the region. Beyond that, its weight is regional rather than global.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: a recovery in cocoa income for its farmers, after the guaranteed price was cut to 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram⁷; continued access to capital at good rates, backed by its low debt risk⁴; and a secure northern border¹¹. Want: a more diversified economy, building on gold, oil, cashews and rubber⁵; and a peaceful political succession. Fear: jihadist spillover from the Sahel¹¹; a collapse in relations with the military governments of Mali and Burkina Faso; and political conflict over who follows Ouattara⁶.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Côte d'Ivoire is aligned with Western partners and the regional bloc ECOWAS, and stands apart from the military governments of the Sahel. That matters because its northern neighbours, Mali and Burkina Faso, are where the insurgency it fears is based; related attacks in coastal West Africa have nearly tripled, and militant drone strikes rose from fewer than 10 in 2024 to about 80 in 2025¹¹. Its economic partners value its stability, as its credit upgrades show^5,8. Detailed, sourced data on its alignments was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A Western-leaning anchor on a troubled frontier.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Côte d'Ivoire spends little on its armed forces: SIPRI puts military spending at 0.77% of GDP in 2025, down from 0.96% in 2020⁹. Yet results matter more than money, and its forces have kept the north free of attacks since mid-2022¹³. The threat is growing in sophistication, with militant drone strikes in the region rising sharply in 2025¹¹. Readiness data is limited, hence low confidence. Effective so far on a small budget, against a rising threat.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Côte d'Ivoire is one of Africa's steadiest performers. The IMF records growth of 6.0% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, and forecasts 6.0% in 2026³. Debt has been judged at low risk of distress, the only such case in sub-Saharan Africa⁴, and Fitch raised its rating to BB⁵. The cocoa price crash is the main drag, halving the guaranteed farmgate price⁷. Strong momentum, earned over a decade.