Cuba

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map has made Cuba a prize and a pawn. It lies close to the United States, which occupied it from 1898 to 1902 and has kept an embargo on it since 1962^5,6. Its position made it the flashpoint of the October 1962 missile crisis⁵. It has little oil of its own: local crude of about 40,000 barrels a day barely runs its power plants, against needs of about 100,000^6,7. An island too close to a superpower and too dependent on imported fuel.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 11 million, with a median age of about 43^1,2. Living conditions are collapsing: blackouts of up to 20 hours a day and acute shortages of food and medicine³. Workers are switching jobs and the state has imposed a four-day week as fuel runs out⁶. Emigration has long been an outlet: thousands fled to the United States by 1961⁵. Official data on jobs and emigration was not available, hence low confidence. An ageing people in a failing economy.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are those of a one-party state. Cuba scored 40 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down one point, ranking 84th of 182⁴. Authorities arbitrarily detain and harass critics, journalists and opponents³. Survey data on trust and work norms is not available, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Cuba's leaders have failed to reform. Since Miguel Díaz-Canel took over from Raúl Castro in 2018, the economy has slid into a worsening crisis that has undermined access to food, health care and electricity^5,3. They tied the country to Venezuelan oil from 2000, and had no plan when it was cut off in 2026^5,6. Their response to protest has been detention³. Leaders who preserve the system at the cost of the people.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Cuba is controlled, not calm. Protests continue to erupt over blackouts and shortages, and hundreds of protesters, including many from the July 2021 demonstrations, remain arbitrarily detained³. At least five nationwide blackouts struck between October 2024 and September 2025³. The state keeps power through surveillance and arrest³. Crime data is not available, hence medium confidence. Order maintained by force, eroding with the lights.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Cuba's society is strained. Shortages and blackouts have driven repeated protests³. Many have left: thousands had already fled to the United States by 1961⁵. Free survey data on social trust is not available, hence low confidence. Hundreds of protesters remain in detention, a warning to others³. A nation whose most able often leave, and whose remainder is held together by the state rather than by hope.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Cuba mainly as a symbol and a test. It was the centre of the 1962 missile crisis⁵. Its fate in 2026 tests US pressure in the region after the fall of Maduro⁶. Official GDP data is not available from the IMF, hence low confidence. Its economy is small and shrinking, and its relevance lies in politics rather than power.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: fuel, after imports fell by about 90% in early 2026⁷; and food and medicine, now in acute shortage³. Want: an end to the US embargo in place since 1962⁶; and a new oil supplier to replace Venezuela⁶. Fear: social unrest, which it meets with detention³; further US pressure, including sanctions on its suppliers⁶; and a collapse of the power grid^3,7.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Cuba has lost its patrons and faces its great neighbour alone. The Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 plunged it into the Special Period, and Venezuela's subsidised oil from 2000 replaced Moscow⁵. In 2026 the United States toppled Maduro, stopped Venezuelan oil to Cuba, and threatened sanctions on any country that supplies it⁶. Data on support from Russia or China was not gathered, hence medium confidence. A client state without a patron.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Cuba's hard power cannot be measured: SIPRI publishes no recent figure for its military spending, and the IMF no figure for its GDP. Its forces once fought abroad, but it withdrew them when Soviet subsidies ended⁵. Today it cannot even fuel its power plants⁶. Readiness data is not available, hence low confidence. A state whose army guards the regime, not the nation's interests abroad.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Cuba is in free fall. Blackouts and shortages worsened through 2025³. The loss of Venezuelan oil in 2026 cut fuel imports by about 90%, and the state moved to a four-day week^7,6. There is no sign of reform³. Official economic data is not available, hence medium confidence. Its old answer, finding a new foreign patron, is blocked by US threats of sanctions on any supplier⁶. Falling, with no floor in sight.