DR Congo

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

DR Congo's map holds enormous wealth and enormous problems. Its southern copper belt made it the source of a record 1.72 million tonnes of copper exports in the first half of 2026⁷, and it dominates world cobalt supply, enough that its export quotas of 96,600 tonnes a year, half of 2024 levels, move the market¹³. But the country is vast and poorly connected, and its eastern provinces, far from Kinshasa and close to Rwanda and Uganda, are where the M23 rebellion has seized swathes of North and South Kivu³. Rich, but too large and fragmented for a weak state to hold.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

DR Congo has one of the youngest and fastest-growing populations in the world: about 116 million people with a median age near 16^1,2. Most are very poor, with GDP per head of about US$1,100¹⁰. Health systems are overwhelmed: the country is fighting its worst Ebola outbreak on record, with more than 8,000 confirmed cases and 3,901 deaths across seven provinces by late September 2026⁸. Reliable data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A vast human resource the state is not yet able to develop.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean, predictable government are very weak. DR Congo scored 20 on Transparency International's 2025 index, unchanged, ranking 163rd of 182 countries⁶. Corruption runs through the mining economy that is the country's main source of wealth, and minerals from the east have long been smuggled across its borders⁹. Data on work norms and social trust is thin, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Félix Tshisekedi's record is mixed but weak where it matters most. On the economy there are gains: S&P raised its outlook to positive in January 2026, citing fiscal management, reserve accumulation and tax reforms⁵, and the government has used cobalt quotas to support prices¹³. On security, it signed peace deals with Rwanda in Washington and with the M23 in Doha, yet the fighting continues⁸. At home, he has said he would accept a third term if the people want it, and a new referendum law could open a path to one³. More effort on staying in power than on governing the east.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The state does not control its own territory. The M23 holds swathes of North and South Kivu³, and clashes with government forces continue despite peace agreements⁸. The DRC alleges that more than 300 people were killed in June and July 2026 in areas held by Rwandan forces and the M23; Rwanda rejects the claims⁸. Corruption is severe, with a score of 20⁶, and the Ebola outbreak has spread to seven provinces⁸. Order is the country's critical weakness.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

DR Congo is divided by war in the east and by a growing political fight in the capital. The government accuses some opposition figures, notably former president Joseph Kabila, of colluding with the M23, and has resisted a national dialogue with them³. Plans that could allow Tshisekedi a third term have angered the opposition, and a June 2026 protest in Kinshasa ended in clashes³. Reliable survey data on trust is limited, hence low confidence. A fractured country held together more by inertia than by consensus.

Why does the world need this country?

DR Congo matters more each year because the world needs its minerals. It is the dominant source of cobalt, and its decision to cap exports at 96,600 tonnes a year, half of 2024 levels, has reshaped the market¹³. Copper exports hit a record in 2026⁷. The IMF's April 2026 outlook puts its GDP at about US$123 billion, fifth in sub-Saharan Africa⁴. The United States has taken a direct interest through the Washington Accords⁸. Rising, on the strength of what lies underground.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: control of its eastern provinces and an end to the M23 rebellion^3,8; containment of the Ebola outbreak⁸; and steady mineral revenue from copper and cobalt^7,13. Want: more value from its minerals, shown in its cobalt export quotas¹³; foreign backing for its sovereignty, through the Washington Accords⁸; and access to cheaper capital, helped by a positive S&P outlook⁵. Fear: a permanent loss of the Kivus; foreign interference, which it alleges Rwanda practises and Rwanda denies^8,9; and political crisis over the presidential succession in 2028³.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

DR Congo is weak against its neighbours and relies on outside powers to balance them. It signed the Washington Accords with Rwanda in December 2025 and the Doha framework with the M23 a month earlier, yet tensions with Rwanda are rising⁸. UN experts say Rwanda backed the M23 to control territory and natural resources; Rwanda denies any involvement⁹. The US stake in the accords gives Kinshasa a powerful sponsor, but not one that has ended the fighting⁸. A large state with little leverage of its own.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

DR Congo's armed forces cannot defend the country's territory. The M23 seized swathes of North and South Kivu³, and government forces have not retaken them despite military spending rising to 1.38% of GDP in 2025, up from 0.57% in 2022¹². The UN peacekeeping mission's mandate comes up for renewal in December⁸. Readiness data is limited, hence medium confidence. A critical weakness.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, the economy is moving forward while the state stands still. The IMF records growth of 6.1% in 2024 and 5.7% in 2025, and forecasts 5.2% for 2026, with inflation falling from 17.7% in 2024 to a forecast 4.3%¹⁰. Copper exports reached a record in the first half of 2026⁷, and S&P moved its outlook to positive⁵. But the war in the east and the worst Ebola outbreak on record⁸ weigh heavily on any gains. Growth without security.