Gabon

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Gabon lies on the equator on the Atlantic coast of Central Africa, bordered by Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon and the Republic of the Congo⁶. Its endowment is rich for a small population: about 200,000 barrels a day of oil in 2023, the world's second-largest manganese production, and possibly the world's largest unexploited iron ore deposit⁶. Some 89.3% of its land is forested⁶, which earned it the first African payments for reducing deforestation in 2021⁶. A wealthy territory for 2.6 million people.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Gabon's people are better off than most Africans: GDP per head is about US$11,034³, and it ranks 108th on the Human Development Index⁶. But large parts of the population are very poor, with about a third living in poverty⁶, and the modelled unemployment rate is 20.2%⁵. The population is young, with a median age of about 21.6². Sourced data on schooling was not gathered for this assessment. Middle-income averages hiding widespread poverty.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits of clean government are weak. Transparency International scored Gabon 29 in 2025, up two points, ranking 135th of 182⁷. For decades power rested on a client network, Françafrique, built by Omar Bongo⁶. Under Léon M'ba, the first president, the press was suppressed and opposition parties excluded⁶. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group. A patronage state now under new management.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, General Brice Oligui Nguema has done two things: he ended the Bongo family's 55-year rule in the August 2023 coup, and he won the April 2025 presidential election with more than 90% of the vote after a new constitution was approved by referendum in November 2024⁶. But his government's spending, especially on infrastructure, drove the fiscal deficit to an estimated 12.2% of GDP in 2025⁸. It has turned to a US$1 billion loan from Trafigura and is negotiating with the IMF⁸. A clean break in politics, a poor start in finance.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Gabon is orderly by regional standards. It has had only four presidents since 1960⁶. Its coups have been brief: in 1964 French paratroopers restored M'ba within 24 hours, a 2019 attempt failed, and the 2023 coup ended the Bongo era without a war⁶. The 2025 election was judged to have been conducted in a credible, transparent and inclusive manner⁶. Comparable crime data was not gathered for this assessment. A stable state whose changes of power come from the barracks.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Gabon has avoided the ethnic conflict of its neighbours. Bantu groups make up about 95% of the population⁶. Political discontent has been real: Ali Bongo's 2009 victory was met with scepticism and sporadic protests, especially in Port-Gentil⁶, and his third-term win in 2023 triggered the coup⁶. The large vote for Oligui in 2025 suggests broad acceptance of the change. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment. A society tired of one family, not divided against itself.

Why does the world need this country?

Gabon matters as a supplier: it is the world's second-largest manganese producer, an ore vital for steel and batteries, and an oil exporter⁶. Its forests make it a player in climate finance⁶. Its economy, about US$26.0 billion³, carries modest weight. It rejoined the African Union after the 2025 election⁶ and has pledged itself an ally of the West⁶. A useful supplier, not a regional power.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: financing to meet heavy refinancing needs, through the IMF, the World Bank and loans such as Trafigura's US$1 billion⁸; steady oil and manganese revenue⁶; and a debt audit to establish what it owes⁸. Want: Western investment and support, which Oligui has courted by pledging Gabon as an ally of the West⁶; payments for its forests⁶. Fear: a further downgrade and loss of market access⁸; a fall in oil prices that pushes debt towards 88% of GDP⁸.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Gabon has no enemies on its borders. France has long been its patron: French troops restored its president in 1964, and the Bongo dynasty ruled through Françafrique⁶. Since the coup, Oligui has assured American and French leaders that Gabon will be an ally of the West⁶. The African Union suspended and then reinstated it⁶. Sourced data on ties with China and others was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A small state staying close to familiar patrons.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Gabon has a professional military of about 5,000 personnel⁶, and SIPRI puts military spending at 1.66% of GDP in 2025⁴, on an economy of about US$26.0 billion³. It faces no external threat. The army's main political role has been domestic: it ended the Bongo era in 2023 and supplied the current president⁶. Enough for internal security, little beyond it.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Gabon's economy is growing slowly while its finances deteriorate. The IMF records growth of 3.4% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, with 3.0% forecast for 2026³. But Fitch estimates debt rose from 72% of GDP in 2024 to 81.1% in 2025 and could near 88% by 2027, and it rates the country CCC-, warning of a further downgrade if financing tightens⁸. Growth is too slow to outrun the borrowing. Falling, unless the new government changes course.