Jordan

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Jordan sits at the crossroads of the Levant. In antiquity the Nabataeans grew rich from Petra by controlling the region's trade routes¹⁰. Its position has mostly been a burden since: it fought Israel in 1948 and lost the West Bank in 1967, taking in waves of Palestinian refugees¹⁰. Its one sea outlet, Aqaba, has become an asset: in 2026 cargo volumes rose 16% as neighbours rerouted trade around regional maritime bottlenecks⁶. A hard neighbourhood with one useful port.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

About 11.6 million people with a median age of about 25^1,2. Income is modest: the IMF puts GDP per head at about US$5,600 in 2026³. Work is the great failure: unemployment was 16.1% in the second quarter of 2026, and 21.0% among Jordanian nationals⁷. The population has been swollen by refugees in each regional war: 300,000 more Palestinians arrived from the West Bank after 1967 alone¹⁰. The IMF says Jordan still shoulders the cost of hosting a large number of refugees⁵. A young people with too few jobs.

What habits does the society reward?

Institutional habits are middling and improving. Jordan scored 50 on Transparency International's 2025 index, up one point, ranking 56th of 182⁹. The state keeps its commitments to lenders: the IMF says its fiscal performance stayed on programme targets through early 2026⁵. Public tolerance of austerity is thin: riots followed price rises in 1989 and subsidy cuts in 1996¹⁰. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Jordan's leaders are careful managers rather than builders. In June 2026 the IMF released a further US$188m and said fiscal performance stayed on target despite the war⁵. Policies to protect energy supply and ease transport bottlenecks helped avoid a sharper slowdown⁶. Yet debt is high, with net government debt projected at 77.2% of GDP in 2026, and the deficit is widening on security spending⁶. King Abdullah II has ruled since 1999¹⁰. Stability delivered; growth and jobs still not.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The state keeps order, firmly. In April 2025 authorities said they had uncovered plots to make weapons, rockets and drones, accused 16 people, and banned the Muslim Brotherhood⁸. Interior Minister Mazen Al Faraya said the group was engaging in activities that could undermine stability⁸. Power rests mainly with the king, and parliament is mostly loyal⁸. The civil war of 1970 remains the warning of what disorder costs¹⁰. Crime data was not gathered, hence medium confidence. Firm order, held by the crown.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Jordan holds together, though its history shows strain. In 1970 a civil war between Jordanians and Palestinians, Black September, took thousands of lives¹⁰. Annexing the West Bank in 1950 more than doubled the population, and Jordan renounced its claim in 1988¹⁰. Anger over Gaza strengthened the Islamist opposition, which made election gains before the 2025 ban⁸. The monarchy remains the binding force. A stable society with old fault lines and new pressures.

Why does the world need this country?

Jordan matters more than its size because of where it sits and what it holds. It has a peace treaty with Israel, signed in 1994, ending 46 years of war¹⁰. It hosts large numbers of refugees, which donors help fund⁵. In 2026 it became a trade route for neighbours avoiding the Gulf, with cargo at Aqaba up 16%⁶. Its economy is small, about US$65bn³. A buffer and a bridge that others need to stay stable.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: donor support and the IMF programme, which finance a deficit widened by war^5,6; and jobs, with 21% of Jordanians unemployed⁷. Want: to keep trade flowing through Aqaba⁶; to bring debt down from about 77% of GDP⁶; and the large investment projects the IMF expects to lift growth in 2027⁵. Fear: regional war spilling over its borders⁶; armed plots at home⁸; and a fall in donor support, which S&P names as a reason it could cut the rating⁶.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Jordan survives by keeping many friends and no open enemies. It made peace with Israel in 1994 and expelled Hamas's leadership more than 25 years ago^10,8. It took part in US-sponsored peace talks after 1991¹⁰. Today it relies on international financial assistance and donor support, which rating agencies treat as a pillar of its credit⁶. Its defence ties were not researched in detail, hence low confidence. A small state that balances skilfully among larger ones.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Jordan spends heavily on defence for its size: SIPRI puts it at about 4.56% of GDP in 2025, on an economy of about US$65bn^4,3. Security spending pushed the 2026 deficit higher⁶. Its army fought Israel in 1948 and 1967, and in 1970 Syrian tanks that entered the north were forced to retreat¹⁰. Its security services broke up an alleged rocket and drone plot in 2025⁸. Readiness data was not gathered, hence low confidence. Strong enough to keep order at home, not to shape the region.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Jordan is holding steady in a storm. The IMF expects growth of 2.7% in 2026, with a pick-up in 2027 as large investment projects start^3,5. S&P expects growth to slow to 2.5% in 2026 before averaging 3.2% from 2027⁶. Remittances rose 14.3% in the first half of 2026, but tourism receipts fell 5.3%⁶. Unemployment eased slightly to 16.1%⁷. Reserves are forecast at about US$26bn⁶. Steady, but not fast enough to absorb its young people.