Lebanon

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Lebanon's coast made it rich in antiquity: the Phoenician trading cities flourished there for more than 1,000 years⁸. Its position has since made it a battleground. Greater Lebanon was created within its present borders in 1920 from the dismembered Ottoman Empire⁸. Palestinian militants used the south to attack Israel from 1968, Israel invaded in 1982, and Syrian troops stayed until 2005⁸. In 2026 Israeli forces again occupied a southern swathe of the country⁷. A trading coast between hostile neighbours.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

About 5.9 million people with a median age of about 29^1,2. They have endured a financial collapse since 2019 and now a war: the World Bank says the March 2026 escalation displaced communities and weighed heavily on tourism and domestic demand⁴. At its height, 1.2 million people were displaced⁷. Inflation is expected to accelerate to 17.5% in 2026⁴. Depositors still await the law that will regulate recovery of their savings⁹. No recent income or unemployment figures were found, hence low confidence. A people repeatedly robbed of their gains.

What habits does the society reward?

Institutional habits are very weak. Lebanon scored 23 on Transparency International's 2025 index, up one point, ranking 153rd of 182¹⁰. The state defaulted on its Eurobonds in 2020 and has still not restructured them⁶. The law to return depositors' savings is still not passed⁹. Elections have often been postponed: twice in 2013–2014, again in 2017, and in 2026⁵. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Lebanon's leaders let the state fail and are only slowly repairing it. Six years after the 2019 collapse, parliament has passed a revised bank resolution law that the IMF called a major step, but the deposit recovery law is still not passed⁹. S&P credited fiscal surpluses over two years and initial reform progress⁶. The government committed to disarming Hezbollah, which the group opposed⁵. In March 2026 parliament extended its own term by two years⁵. Reform by inches, while the state lacks control of war and peace.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The state does not hold a monopoly of force. On 2 March 2026 Hezbollah fired on Israel in support of Tehran, triggering an Israeli air and ground campaign⁷. By mid-June at least 3,783 people had been killed and 11,699 wounded, and more than 68,000 housing units were damaged or destroyed⁷. Israeli troops occupy part of the south, saying they are protecting northern Israel; Lebanese authorities count 1.2 million displaced⁷. The Taif Agreement of 1989 called for Hezbollah's militia to be dismantled; it never was⁸. A state that does not decide when its country goes to war.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Lebanon is held together by a fragile sharing of power among its communities. Sectarian war broke out in 1860, and tensions over the distribution of power led to the civil war of 1975–1990⁸. The Taif Agreement and Syrian forces ended that war⁸. Today parliament is heavily divided between Hezbollah and its allies and their opponents, who took the majority in 2022⁵. The 2026 war, fought from Lebanese soil by one faction, has deepened the split^5,7. A country of communities that share a state but not a strategy.

Why does the world need this country?

Lebanon matters to others as a front line. Hezbollah's attack on Israel in March 2026 tied Lebanon to the US-Israeli war with Iran^7,5. Israel occupies part of the south and has said its aim is to protect northern Israel⁷. The IMF and World Bank stay engaged because collapse would be costly for the region^9,4. Its own economy carries little weight. A battlefield in others' wars, valued for the danger it poses.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: an end to the war and to Israeli occupation of the south⁷; and reconstruction money, which depends on reforms⁴. Want: an IMF programme, which requires more reforms, including a deposit recovery law⁹; to restructure its defaulted Eurobonds⁶; and to bring all arms under state control, as the government has pledged⁵. Fear: a wider war with Israel⁷; renewed inflation, expected at 17.5%⁴; and Hezbollah's resistance to disarmament⁵.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Lebanon is acted upon, not balancing. Iran's ally Hezbollah took it to war in 2026⁷. Israel, which withdrew from the south in 2000, has again occupied part of it^8,7. Syrian troops stayed in Lebanon until 2005⁸. Western lenders hold the keys to its recovery through the IMF and World Bank^9,4. The government's pledge to disarm Hezbollah shows where it wants to stand, but not its power to get there⁵. A small state whose choices are made by others.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

The Lebanese state is militarily weak. SIPRI puts military spending at about 2.51% of GDP in 2025³. The army has not been able to disarm Hezbollah, which fought its own war with Israel in 2026^5,7. It could not prevent Israeli forces from occupying a southern swathe of the country⁷. The army's equipment and readiness were not researched, hence low confidence. A national army outgunned at home and abroad.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Lebanon is falling again. It grew 4.2% in 2025, its best since the 2019 collapse, but the World Bank expects a 6.4% contraction in 2026⁴. War damaged housing and infrastructure and collapsed tourism⁴. Reform has inched forward with the bank resolution law, but no IMF deal exists and the Eurobonds remain in default^9,6. Elections have been delayed to 2028⁵. A brief recovery, wiped out.