Namibia

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Namibia's land is harsh and its subsoil rich. It is the driest country in sub-Saharan Africa¹², with only about 3.2 million people¹. Its uranium mines can provide 10% of world mining output⁹. Offshore, TotalEnergies found light oil at Venus in the Orange Basin in February 2022¹⁰, a find that could make it an oil producer. Its port at Walvis Bay stayed under South African control until 1994¹⁵ and is now its own outlet to the Atlantic. A sparse, dry country with valuable resources.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Namibia's people are young, with a median age of about 21.5², and too many are without work. The 2023 census found unemployment at 36.9%, up from 33.4% in 2018, and youth unemployment at 44.4%⁵. Income disparity is one of the highest in the world, with a Gini coefficient of 59 in 2015¹². Data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment. A small, young population that the economy is failing to employ.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean government are better than the regional average but slipping. Namibia scored 46 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down 3 points, ranking 65th of 182 countries⁷. Fitch credits its governance framework and financing flexibility⁶. Data on social trust and work norms is limited, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Namibia's leaders have kept the state stable and solvent, but not dynamic. President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah won 58.7% of the vote in 2024 and was inaugurated as the country's first female president on 21 March 2025⁸. The rating has held at BB- with a stable outlook, though Fitch warns that high deficits, rising debt and weak growth weigh on it⁶. Growth slowed from 3.8% in 2024 to 1.7% in 2025³, and unemployment has risen⁵. The test of this government is converting the oil finds into an investment decision¹¹.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Namibia is orderly. It won independence on 21 March 1990 after a war that began in 1966¹⁴, and has since held regular elections and changed presidents peacefully, most recently in March 2025⁸. Corruption is moderate by regional standards, with a score of 46 and a rank of 65th of 182, though worse than a year earlier⁷. Comparable data on crime and the rule of law was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Peaceful and lawful, with a rising corruption risk.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Namibia is peaceful but unequal. Its Gini coefficient of 59 is one of the world's highest¹², and youth unemployment is 44.4%⁵. Colonial history still divides: Germany's 2021 offer of 1.1 billion euros over the 1904–1908 genocide was agreed with the government but rejected by most organisations representing the Herero and Nama people¹³. Survey data on trust is limited, hence low confidence. Stable, with deep grievances over wealth and history.

Why does the world need this country?

Namibia is a small economy, about US$17.9 billion in 2026³. Its weight comes from resources: uranium mines capable of 10% of world output⁹, and offshore oil discoveries in the Orange Basin, where TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy and the national oil company hold the Venus project¹⁰. If Venus goes ahead, a decision TotalEnergies says must come before 2027¹¹, Namibia's relevance will rise. Until then it is a minor player.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: jobs, with unemployment at 36.9%⁵; a final investment decision on the Venus oil project before 2027¹¹; and fiscal room, with Fitch expecting debt of 66% of GDP⁶. Want: to turn oil and uranium^9,10 into a broader economy; and a settlement of the genocide question that its own Herero and Nama organisations accept¹³. Fear: oil investors walking away; a downgrade if deficits persist⁶; and unrest among the young unemployed.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Namibia keeps good relations with all sides. It was ruled by Germany from 1884 and taken by South Africa in 1915¹⁵, and it has since dealt with both as partners, negotiating with Germany over the genocide¹³. Its oil future brings in French and Qatari capital through the Venus project¹⁰. Detailed, sourced data on its relations with China, the United States and its neighbours was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Namibia's armed forces are small and face no serious external threat. SIPRI puts military spending at 2.77% of GDP in 2025⁴, on an economy of about US$17.9 billion³, so the absolute sums are small. It has been at peace since independence in 1990¹⁴. Data on readiness and equipment was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Adequate for a peaceful country; not a regional force.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Namibia is treading water. The IMF records growth of 5.4% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025, with 2.0% forecast for 2026³. Government debt is steady at about 67.5% of GDP³, and Fitch has held the rating at BB-⁶. Unemployment rose between 2018 and 2023⁵. The upside is real but not yet earned: the Venus oil project awaits a decision that TotalEnergies says must come before 2027¹¹.