Pakistan

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Pakistan's map gives it weight and trouble in equal measure. It sits between China, India, Afghanistan and Iran, and its partnership with China runs through the US$62 billion economic corridor²⁴. Its agriculture depends on the Indus, and India has held the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance since the Pahalgam attack; Pakistan's prime minister calls every drop of water a red line¹¹. Both its long land frontiers are hostile: with India it fought in May 2025¹⁰, and with Afghanistan it is fighting now¹⁵. Strategic, but encircled.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Pakistan has about 259 million people with a median age near 21^1,2, one of the largest and youngest populations in the world. It is not yet putting them to productive work: unemployment rose to 7.1% in 2024-25⁵, and GDP per head is about US$1,836³. Reliable recent data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A demographic weight that is still more burden than asset.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean, predictable government are weak. Pakistan scored 28 on Transparency International's 2025 index, ranking 136th of 182 countries⁷. The army has twice overthrown elected governments, in 1977 and 1999^22,23, and in 2025 the constitution was changed to place the army chief at the head of all the armed forces and move constitutional cases to a court whose judges the government appoints⁸. Institutions bend to whoever holds power. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Pakistan's army-led leadership has stabilised the economy but not the country. Inflation fell from 29.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2025, and the deficit is forecast to narrow to 2.6% of GDP in 2026³; S&P credited reforms that increased reserves and improved fiscal discipline when it upgraded the rating in July 2026⁶. Abroad it secured a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey¹⁷. Against that, it has drifted into open conflict with Afghanistan¹⁵ and concentrated power through the 27th amendment⁸. Competent at managing crises; less so at preventing them.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Order is deteriorating. Militant violence killed 1,415 people and injured 558 in July to September 2026¹⁶. The conflict with Afghanistan's Taliban government, which Pakistan accuses of sheltering fighters and which denies it, has brought repeated Pakistani airstrikes and border clashes^14,16; Afghanistan says its forces killed 28 fighters who crossed from Pakistan in September¹⁴. Corruption is high, with a score of 28⁷. The state holds its cities; its western regions are contested.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Pakistan is held together by its army and its rivalry with India, and pulled apart by politics and region. Former prime minister Imran Khan, removed by a no-confidence vote in April 2022²⁵, was sentenced to 17 years in December 2025, a verdict his party calls the worst form of political revenge⁹. The 27th amendment passed with protests by the opposition⁸. Militant violence is concentrated in the western provinces¹⁶. Survey data on trust was not gathered, hence low confidence.

Why does the world need this country?

Pakistan matters well beyond its economy of about US$450 billion³. It is a nuclear power with about 170 warheads¹², a rival of India with which it fought in May 2025¹⁰, and the eastern anchor of a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, under which it agreed in October 2026 to rapid deployment of forces in Saudi Arabia^17,18. China's corridor through its territory²⁴ makes it central to Beijing's plans. Its relevance rests on its army and its bomb.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: security on its western border and an end to the conflict with Afghanistan^13,15; the Indus waters, which India holds in abeyance¹¹; and continued stabilisation through the reforms that won it a rating upgrade⁶. Want: deterrence against India, backed by about 170 warheads¹²; Gulf money and protection through the Saudi and Turkish pact¹⁷; and Chinese investment²⁴. Fear: a two-front war, with India and Afghanistan at once^10,15; militant violence spreading¹⁶; and losing the Indus¹¹.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Pakistan balances among stronger partners. China is its main economic patron through the corridor²⁴. Saudi Arabia is its Gulf partner, now bound by a pact under which an attack on one is treated as an attack on all three members, with Turkey¹⁷. Its rivals are India, with which the May 2025 confrontation ended in a fragile ceasefire on 10 May¹⁰, and the Afghan Taliban, whose fighting with Pakistan threatens mediation by China, Turkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia¹⁵. Many friends, but two hostile frontiers.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Pakistan is a serious military power. It has about 170 nuclear warheads and, according to SIPRI, continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material in 2025¹². It spends 2.91% of GDP on the military⁴. Its May 2025 clash with India ended in a ceasefire after four days¹⁰, and it is conducting repeated airstrikes in Afghanistan¹⁶. Its forces are stretched, however, between the eastern front, the western conflict and internal militancy¹⁶. Strong, and fully committed.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Pakistan has stepped back from the edge. The IMF records growth of -0.2% in 2023, 2.6% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, with 3.6% forecast for 2026; government debt falls from 78.5% of GDP in 2023 to 69.8% in 2026³. S&P's upgrade to B in July 2026 confirmed the turn⁶. But the IMF expects inflation to climb again, to 7.1% in 2026 and 9.9% in 2027³, and the conflict with Afghanistan and militant violence are worsening^15,16. Stable, but not yet rising.