Senegal

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Senegal is the westernmost country of mainland West Africa, on the Atlantic coast, and Dakar, once capital of all French West Africa, remains a shipping and transport hub for the region, serving landlocked Mali⁶. Its resources include iron, zircon, gold, phosphates and now oil and gas⁶. Against that, it is a net food importer, especially of rice, and among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with more than 70% of the population working in agriculture⁶. A good position whose new hydrocarbons are improving the hand.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Senegal's people are very young, with a median age of about 19.8², and poor, with GDP per head of about US$1,934 in 2025³. More than 70% work in agriculture, which drought and rising temperatures threaten⁶. Short of natural resources, the country has historically put its effort into literacy and education⁶, but sourced data on schooling outcomes was not gathered for this assessment. The modelled unemployment rate of 2.7%⁵ says little where most people work on farms. A young population still waiting for productive jobs.

What habits does the society reward?

Senegal's institutions are stronger than most in its region. Transparency International scored it 46 in 2025, up one point, ranking 65th of 182⁷. V-Dem ranks it 10th in Africa for electoral democracy⁶. But the habits of honest accounting failed: the IMF found the 2023 deficit was 12.3% of GDP, not the 4.9% the previous government reported¹⁰. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group. A political culture of accountability, with state accounts that proved unreliable.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Senegal's leadership has left a mess and is struggling to clean it up. An audit attributed about US$13 billion of unreported debt to the previous government⁹. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, elected in March 2024⁶, has narrowed the deficit and reached a staff-level deal with the IMF on a US$2.2 billion programme, still subject to board approval¹⁰. But in May 2026 he sacked Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko after disagreements including over the IMF loan, and Sonko's party, with 130 of 165 seats, refused to join the new government⁹. Moody's has downgraded the country again⁸. A sound instinct undermined by a split at the top.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Senegal has been recognised as one of the most stable countries in Africa since 1960⁶. The separatist conflict in Casamance, which began in 1982, has subsided this century⁶. Order has frayed at times: protests that began in March 2021 after the arrest of Ousmane Sonko turned violent in June 2023, when Amnesty International counted 23 deaths, most from police bullets⁶. Comparable crime data was not gathered for this assessment. A stable state with occasional, serious lapses in policing protest.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Senegalese society has settled its disputes at the ballot box: power has passed peacefully between parties in 2000, 2012 and 2024⁶. That habit is now under strain. The president and his former ally, Ousmane Sonko, have split; Sonko's Pastef holds 130 of 165 seats and refuses to serve in the new government, raising fears of deadlock⁹. Sonko now presides over the National Assembly⁶. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment. Cohesive society, divided government.

Why does the world need this country?

Senegal matters more than its economy, about US$37.1 billion in 2025³, would suggest. Dakar is a banking and shipping hub for francophone West Africa and the gateway for landlocked Mali⁶, and its record of peaceful elections⁶ makes it a reference point for democracy in the region. Its new oil and gas⁶ add some economic weight. A regional example rather than a regional power.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: IMF board approval of the US$2.2 billion programme and the corrective measures it requires¹⁰; refinancing of a debt that reached 132% of GDP at the end of 2024¹⁰, as Moody's warns of rising refinancing needs⁸; and a working majority in parliament⁹. Want: oil and gas revenues to stabilise the budget⁶; continued investment as the region's hub⁶. Fear: default or a restructuring that hits creditors; political deadlock between president and parliament⁹; and climate shocks to an agricultural workforce⁶.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Senegal has no serious enemies and has loosened its oldest tie: in November 2024 President Faye announced that French troops would leave, and France handed back its military sites in July 2025⁶. It is a member of ECOWAS and the African Union⁶. Its main outside lever now is the IMF, whose earlier US$1.8 billion programme was suspended over misreported debt and whose new programme awaits board approval¹⁰. Detailed, sourced data on ties with China, the Gulf and Russia was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Senegal's military is modest. SIPRI puts its spending at 1.56% of GDP in 2025⁴, on an economy of about US$37.1 billion³. It has contained the low-level Casamance insurgency, which has subsided this century⁶. With French forces gone since 2025⁶, it now provides its own security. Adequate for its needs, not a regional military power.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Senegal's growth is real but its finances are sinking. The IMF records growth of 6.5% in 2024 and 6.7% in 2025³. But debt reached 132% of GDP at the end of 2024¹⁰, Moody's cut the rating to Caa2 in August 2026 with a negative outlook⁸, and the IMF programme is not yet approved¹⁰. Political deadlock threatens the reforms needed⁹. The deficit did narrow from 13.4% of GDP in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025¹⁰. Growth without solvency is not yet a rising trajectory.