Sierra Leone

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map is modest but not poor. Sierra Leone has significant natural resource wealth, including diamonds, gold, bauxite and rutile⁶, and iron ore has driven much of its recent growth, though less so now⁶. Energy companies reported oil off its coast and Liberia's in 2012, though its size is still being estimated⁸. Its coast gave it Freetown, founded in 1787 as a settlement for freed slaves⁸. The land supports farming for most of the population, but agriculture is exposed to climate shocks⁶, and its border with Liberia is where the rebels began the civil war in 1991⁸. Resources enough to build on, if they are well governed.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 9 million and young, with a median age of about 20^1,2. Most people are engaged in subsistence agriculture⁶. The country must create at least 75,000 new jobs a year just to keep its employment rate steady, and growth is held back by limited access to finance, land, electricity and skills⁹. A free education programme has reached 1.8 million students⁶. A drug epidemic weighs on the young: 61% of Afrobarometer respondents personally know a neighbour who has used kush, and young people are more likely to¹³. The ILO's modelled unemployment rate of 3.2%⁵ says little in an informal economy. Recent data on skills is scarce, hence low confidence. A young population still waiting for work.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are weak but improving. Sierra Leone scored 34 on Transparency International's 2025 index, up one point, ranking 109th of 182⁷. Its history is one of coups: in 1967, 1968, 1992 and 1996, and in 1997 a junta that suspended the constitution and abolished political parties⁸. A one-party state was proclaimed in 1978⁸. Since the war, elections have twice handed power to the opposition, in 2007 and 2018⁸. Survey data on trust and work norms beyond the kush survey was not gathered, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, President Julius Maada Bio's government has a decent economic record and a divisive political one. Inflation fell to a multi-decade low of 4.4% in December 2025, and the budget deficit narrowed to 4.1% of GDP with a first-ever primary surplus⁶, though partly through cuts to capital spending and a buildup of arrears⁶. Bio chaired ECOWAS for a year and handed over at a summit in Lungi in July 2026¹⁴. He was re-elected in 2023 with 56%, and post-election tensions were defused only by regional mediation⁶. In August 2026 his party passed electoral reforms over an opposition walkout, which he has referred to the Supreme Court^6,11. Competent on money, combative on politics.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Order holds, but has been tested. In November 2023 gunmen broke into a military armoury and several prisons, freeing almost 2,000 inmates, in what the government called an attempted coup¹⁰. Charges against former president Ernest Bai Koroma were dropped on health grounds in July 2026¹⁰. A kush epidemic has spread: 99% of those aware of the drug call its abuse a significant problem¹³. Corruption perceptions remain weak, at 34⁷. Since the war, its political disputes have been settled through elections and regional mediation⁶. An order restored after war, still fragile.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Sierra Leone has rebuilt a nation after a war in which rebels amputated and raped civilians; disarmament of over 70,000 combatants was completed in 2004⁸. Politics is now a two-party contest: after the 2023 election the ruling SLPP held 81 seats to the opposition APC's 54, and post-election tensions threatened stability until an Agreement for National Unity was signed⁶. The divide has deepened: the opposition controls Freetown's councils, and the August 2026 reforms passed amid opposition protests^6,11. The APC argues the lower threshold weakens presidential legitimacy and national consensus¹². Survey data on social trust was not gathered, hence low confidence. A peace that holds, on a narrowing base of consent.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Sierra Leone little. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$8.5bn³. It matters for minerals, including rutile, bauxite and diamonds⁶, and as a success story of post-war peacebuilding: British forces and UN peacekeepers helped end its war, and the last UN troops left in 2005⁸. It has gained a regional voice: Bio chaired ECOWAS for a year and hosted the bloc's summit at Lungi in 2026¹⁴. It sent a battalion to the AU mission in Somalia in 2013⁸. Respected in its region, marginal beyond it.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: jobs for a young population, at least 75,000 a year⁹, and electricity, finance and skills for the private sector to provide them⁹. Need: stable prices and reserves, which fell to about two months of imports by mid-2026 as the Middle East crisis pushed up energy and food costs⁶. Want: mining output to rebound and agriculture to grow⁶; continued IMF and World Bank support⁶. Want, for the ruling party: the reformed electoral rules in place for 2028¹¹. Fear: a disputed 2028 election^6,12; another attempt on the state like 2023¹⁰; and a kush epidemic among the young¹³.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Sierra Leone has no balance to strike; it depends on its region and its donors. Its war was ended by outsiders: the Nigerian-led ECOMOG force drove rebels from Freetown in 1998, and British paratroopers and UN peacekeepers secured the peace in 2000⁸. ECOWAS and the African Union mediated after the disputed 2023 election⁶, and ECOWAS brokered the deal that let Koroma go to Nigeria¹⁰. It chaired ECOWAS in 2025–26¹⁴. Its budget leans on IMF financing⁶. No rival threatens it, and no patron guarantees it. A small state that relies on its neighbourhood.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Sierra Leone cannot defend itself against a serious threat. SIPRI puts military spending at 0.37% of GDP in 2025⁴, on an economy of about US$8.5bn³. In the civil war its army overthrew governments rather than defeating the rebels, and order was restored by ECOMOG, British troops and the UN⁸. In November 2023 attackers broke into a military armoury¹⁰. It has contributed a battalion to the AU mission in Somalia⁸. Readiness data was not gathered, hence medium confidence. An army that is small, and whose loyalty has been tested.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Sierra Leone is inching forward. Growth rose to 4.8% in 2025, and the World Bank expects 4.0% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027⁶. Growth is becoming less reliant on iron ore, with agriculture and manufacturing stronger⁶. Inflation fell to 4.4% in December 2025, but more than doubled to 15.7% by August 2026 as the Middle East war raised costs⁶. The deficit narrowed to 4.1% of GDP⁶. But reserves have fallen to about two months of imports, and the World Bank expects growth to soften in 2028 amid electoral uncertainties⁶. Progress from a low base, exposed to outside shocks and to its own election.