Somalia

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Somalia's position is valuable. Its coastline, more than 3,333 kilometres long, is the longest of mainland Africa, and it faces the Gulf of Aden to the north and the Indian Ocean to the east⁶. It has several major seaports, including Mogadishu, Bosaso, Berbera and Kismayo⁶. It has proven gas reserves, but whether it has proven oil is uncertain⁶. The terrain is mainly plateaus, plains and highlands, and prone to drought: the 2021 to 2023 drought, its worst in 40 years, affected 7.8 million people⁶. A strategic coast on a harsh land.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Somalia's people are among the youngest in the world, with a median age of about 15.6², and among the poorest, with GDP per head of about US$850³. It is among the least developed countries in the world⁶. In 2026 the UN and the World Food Programme warned that six million people, a third of the population, faced food crises, and 1.9 million children acute malnutrition⁶. A young population with too little food and too few formal jobs.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutions that make a state work are almost absent. Transparency International scored Somalia 9 in 2025, ranking 181st of 182⁷. Formal statistics are so scarce that the size of the economy is hard to gauge⁶. Yet private enterprise survives: an informal economy of livestock, remittances and telecommunications has carried the country through decades of war⁶. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group. Self-reliance in business, no habit of public trust.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, re-elected in 2022, began well: a 2022 offensive recaptured many settlements from al-Shabaab⁶. But some of those gains were reversed in 2025⁶. Constitutional amendments in March 2024 led three of six member states to withdraw recognition of the federal government⁶. His term ended on 15 May 2026 without an election agreement⁶; lawmakers had voted in March to extend it by up to a year, which the opposition criticised, and elections are now set for April and May 2027⁸. Some military progress, little political consensus.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Somalia has had no lasting order since the government collapsed in 1991⁶. Al-Shabaab, fighting the central government for two decades, still controls vast areas of the countryside and can regularly strike major population centres⁸. Insurgents still control much of central and southern Somalia and influence government-held areas⁶. In 2024 local clashes broke out in Jubaland and South West State after a constitutional dispute⁶. The army has pushed the militants back only with an African Union mission's support⁸. The state does not control its own territory.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Somalia is one of Africa's most ethnically homogeneous countries, with about 85% ethnic Somalis⁶, yet it has fragmented. The north-west declared independence as Somaliland in May 1991 and, though recognised by no state for decades, was recognised by Israel in 2025⁶. Puntland was set up as a state in 1998⁶. In 2024 three of six federal member states withdrew recognition of the federal government⁶. A shared identity that has not produced a shared state.

Why does the world need this country?

Somalia matters to others for its coast on the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean⁶, and as a base for al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-allied group⁸. Its economy, about US$14.8 billion in 2026³, carries little weight. It is a member of the East African Community and the Arab League⁶. Relevant as a security problem on a vital sea route, not as a power.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: outside military support against al-Shabaab, which the army cannot yet defeat alone⁸; food aid for the six million facing food crises⁶; and agreement with its member states on the rules for the 2027 elections^8,6. Want: control of its full territory, including Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 and was recognised by Israel in 2025⁶. Fear: a resurgent al-Shabaab; further fragmentation among member states⁶; and aid cuts during drought⁶.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Somalia depends on outsiders for its survival. The federal government fights al-Shabaab alongside the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission and the United States^6,8. Kenya's army joined operations against al-Shabaab in 2011⁶, and Ethiopia, which Barre's Somalia invaded and which itself invaded in 2006, is a neighbour it cannot ignore⁶. Israel's 2025 recognition of Somaliland⁶ adds an outside challenge to its territorial claims. Detailed, sourced data on the roles of Turkey, the Gulf states and China was not gathered, hence low confidence.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Somalia's military cannot secure the country. SIPRI puts its spending at 1.54% of GDP in 2025⁴, on an economy of about US$14.8 billion³. The army has pushed back al-Shabaab only with an African Union mission behind it⁸, and some of its 2022 gains were reversed in 2025⁶. Al-Shabaab still controls vast rural areas⁸. A state that depends on foreign troops for its own security.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Somalia is barely moving. The IMF records growth of 4.2% in 2023, 4.0% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025, with 2.3% forecast for 2026³. Military gains have been partly reversed⁶, and politics is stuck over the term extension and election rules, with votes set for 2027⁸. Drought and aid cuts left six million facing food crises in 2026⁶. No collapse, no take-off.