Uganda

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Uganda is a fertile, landlocked country of about 52.8 million people¹. Its new wealth is oil: at Kingfisher, the central processing facility was 99% complete and 22 of 31 production wells ready by mid-2026, with first exports targeted for October 2026¹⁰. Being landlocked, it depends on a pipeline through Tanzania to sell that oil. It borders unstable neighbours, and its troops have served in Somalia since 2007¹⁴. A good endowment, dependent on neighbours for access to the sea.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Uganda's population is very young, with a median age of about 17², and poor, with GDP per head of about US$1,453³. The modelled unemployment rate is 2.7%⁵, but most work is informal or on farms, and the figure says little about productive jobs. Reliable data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A fast-growing labour force with low productivity.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean government are weak. Uganda scored 25 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down 1 point, ranking 148th of 182 countries⁷. Fitch names weak governance among the constraints on its rating⁶. Patronage runs through a system in which one movement has held power since 1986¹², which leaves few independent checks on how public money is used. Data on social trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium rather than high confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Yoweri Museveni's record is long and mixed. His movement won the bush war in 1986¹² and ended the era of Amin's abuses and civil war¹¹. Growth has been steady at 5% to 6.7% a year since 2023³, and oil is nearly ready¹⁰. But he scrapped term limits in 2005 and age limits in 2017¹³, corruption is severe⁷, and debt is rising, from 50.4% of GDP in 2023 to a forecast 55.1% in 2026³. After four decades, the main project is staying in power.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The state controls its territory, and the army is firmly loyal. Order is kept partly through pressure: the January 2026 election was held under an internet blackout, with at least 10 deaths and observers denouncing intimidation, arrests and abductions⁸. Corruption is severe, with a score of 25 and a rank of 148th of 182⁷. Comparable crime data was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Firm order, held by force as much as by consent.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Uganda is divided between a ruling movement that has held power since 1986¹² and an urban, young opposition. In January 2026 Bobi Wine won 24.72% of the vote and rejected the results as fake⁸. The removal of term and age limits¹³ means the country has never had a peaceful handover of power under Museveni. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Held together by the state, not by agreement.

Why does the world need this country?

Uganda matters in East Africa. Its economy is about US$72.2 billion in 2026³, growing quickly, and set to become an oil exporter¹⁰. Its army has been central to regional peacekeeping: Ugandan and Burundian troops drove al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu in 2010 to 2011¹⁴. Fitch expects the start of oil production to lift its economy⁶. Its weight is regional, and it projects little power beyond East Africa.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: first oil and its revenue, with exports targeted for October 2026¹⁰; financing for a rising debt, forecast at 55.1% of GDP in 2026³; and stability around the succession to Museveni. Want: to be the region's military anchor¹⁴; and to keep Western lenders engaged despite rifts such as the World Bank's 2023 halt to new lending¹⁵. Fear: unrest from a young opposition⁸; delays to oil¹⁰; and isolation over its laws and its elections^8,15.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Uganda balances between Western partners and others. Its role in Somalia¹⁴ made it a valued Western security partner, but relations have frayed: the World Bank halted new lending in August 2023 over the Anti-Homosexuality Act¹⁵. Detailed, sourced data on its relations with its neighbours, China and the Gulf was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. It has many partners and few dependable allies.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Uganda's army is among the most experienced in East Africa. Its troops formed the core of the African Union mission in Somalia from 2007 and, with Burundian forces, drove al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu in 2010 to 2011¹⁴. SIPRI puts military spending at 1.96% of GDP in 2025⁴. The army is also the regime's base of power. Readiness data was not gathered for this assessment. Battle-tested and loyal, but modest in size and budget.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Uganda is growing steadily but borrowing to do it. The IMF records growth of 5.0% in 2023, 6.0% in 2024 and 6.7% in 2025, with 6.2% forecast for 2026 and 9.9% for 2027 as oil comes on stream³. Debt is rising, to a forecast 55.1% of GDP in 2026, and the deficit widened to 6.6% of GDP in 2025³. Fitch holds the rating at B, citing rising debt and a high interest burden⁶. Oil could lift the trajectory; it has not yet done so.