Western Sahara

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Western Sahara covers about 272,000 square kilometres of mainly desert flatland on Africa's Atlantic coast, and is the most sparsely populated territory in Africa³. Aside from rich fishing waters and phosphate reserves, it has few natural resources and too little rain and fresh water for most farming³. The Bou Craa mine produces about 10% of Morocco's annual phosphate output³. Offshore oil and gas are speculated but unproven³. A long coast and some minerals on otherwise barren land.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The territory has about 600,000 inhabitants^1,3, with a median age of about 32.8². Its Sahrawi population is divided: many live in the Moroccan-held areas, others in refugee camps around Tindouf in Algeria and in exile elsewhere³. No reliable figures on income, schooling or jobs exist for the territory as a whole, hence low confidence. A small, scattered population whose circumstances depend on which side of the berm it lives.

What habits does the society reward?

There are no comparable indicators of governance or corruption for the territory itself. Its institutions are those of the two claimants: the Moroccan-held areas are administered as provinces of the kingdom and heavily subsidised³, while the Polisario Front's Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic governs from exile³. Spanish colonial rule, from 1884 to 1975, left a lasting mark on languages and institutions³. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group. A low score that reflects absent data as much as observed weakness.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

No single government leads Western Sahara, so leadership is judged by what each claimant has achieved there. Morocco has secured de facto control of most of the territory, its major cities and most resources, and won growing diplomatic support for its autonomy plan^3,5. The Polisario Front has kept its claim alive, won recognition from the UN as the people's legitimate representative and membership of the African Union for its republic, and has won some court cases³. Neither has produced a settlement in fifty years.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The territory is divided by force. A war from 1975 to 1991 ended in a UN-sponsored ceasefire overseen by MINURSO³, but the ceasefire broke down in November 2020, leading to ongoing armed clashes between Morocco and the Polisario Front³. Morocco's 2,700 km berm, lined with land mines, splits the territory³. The UN mission's mandate runs to 31 October 2026⁴. Day-to-day order in the Moroccan-held towns is maintained by the Moroccan state³. A frozen conflict that has thawed into low-level fighting.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

The territory's people are physically divided. The berm separates the Moroccan-held 80% from the Polisario-held 20%³, and a large part of the Sahrawi population lives in refugee camps in Algeria or in exile³. By 1999 the UN had identified about 85,000 voters for a referendum, nearly half in the Moroccan-held areas and the rest in the camps and abroad, but the two sides never agreed on the list³. Survey data does not exist. No shared political community spans the territory.

Why does the world need this country?

Western Sahara matters as the central issue in Morocco's foreign policy and its rivalry with Algeria^3,5. It occupies the UN Security Council every year, through MINURSO's mandate⁴, and it has shaped deals between Morocco and the United States and Israel³. Its phosphates and fishing waters draw European interest, and legal challenges³. Relevant as a diplomatic contest, with little economic weight of its own.

What does it need, want and fear?

For the territory's people the interests are basic: security, an end to fighting along the berm, and a settled status³. The claimants' positions differ. Morocco seeks a settlement on the basis of autonomy under its sovereignty, which the Security Council endorsed in 2025 as a basis for talks^3,5. The Polisario Front seeks self-determination through a referendum and refuses talks based on the autonomy plan^3,5. Each fears a settlement on the other's terms.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Western Sahara's fate is decided by others. Morocco is supported by France and the United States, which in December 2020 recognised Moroccan sovereignty in exchange for Morocco normalising relations with Israel³; the UK, France and US backed the 2025 resolution⁵. The Polisario Front is primarily supported by Algeria, and its republic is an African Union member³. China, Russia and Pakistan abstained on the 2025 resolution⁴. A territory with no power of its own, caught between its claimants' patrons.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

The territory has no military of its own in the usual sense. Morocco's army holds most of it behind the berm³. The Polisario Front's forces, backed by Algeria, hold the eastern 20% and have resumed armed clashes since 2020³. In the war, Polisario attacks included a bombardment of Mauritania's capital, and Mauritania withdrew its claim in 1979; Morocco contained the guerrillas with the berm³. No figures on spending exist. Military weight lies with the claimants, not the territory.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, the territory's status has not changed in decades: the referendum promised in 1991 has stalled³. What has changed is diplomacy. Since 2020 the United States, Israel, France and others have backed Morocco's position, and the Security Council in 2025 endorsed talks on the basis of its autonomy plan^3,5. The Polisario Front rejects that basis and fighting continues at a low level^3,5. The mandate renewal due by 31 October 2026⁴ will show where the Council stands. Movement in capitals, not on the ground.