Zambia

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Zambia is a landlocked country of about 22.5 million people¹ whose economy has relied on mineral extraction, above all copper, since the 1920s¹⁰. Copper makes it rich when prices are high and poor when they fall: in 1973 copper accounted for 95% of export earnings, and its price halved in 1975¹¹. Fitch credits a rebound in copper production and high prices for its recent current-account surplus⁶. A valuable resource, a single point of failure, and no coast.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Zambia's population is young, with a median age of about 18², and poor, with GDP per head of about US$1,882³. The modelled unemployment rate is 5.9%⁵, but most work is informal, and the figure says little about productive jobs. Reliable data on schooling and skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A young workforce in an economy that has created too few formal jobs.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean government are middling and weakening. Zambia scored 37 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down 2 points, ranking 99th of 182 countries⁷. It has held regular elections and handed over power peacefully, most recently in 2021¹³. Fitch notes a limited record of fiscal slippage in election years⁶. Data on social trust and work norms is limited, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, President Hakainde Hichilema, in office since August 2021¹³, has delivered the hardest part of a recovery. He completed the restructuring of US$3.8 billion of Eurobonds in June 2024, and Fitch upgraded Zambia out of default in November 2025, judging it had normalised relations with a significant majority of its commercial creditors⁶. The IMF expects debt to fall to 82.1% of GDP in 2026³. Against that, his 2026 re-election came with the arrest of leading opposition figures⁸. Competent on the economy; less patient with opponents.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Zambia is generally peaceful, and the August 2026 vote was described by the EU as largely peaceful⁸. But the electoral commission suspended vote-counting for hours after violence against polling staff, and 11 people, including leading opposition figures, were arrested in a raid the government said targeted militia activity and the opposition disputes⁸. Corruption is moderate, with a score of 37 and a rank of 99th of 182⁷. Calm, with signs of strain.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Zambia has a record of peaceful political change: Frederick Chiluba defeated the long-serving Kenneth Kaunda in the 1991 multi-party election¹², and Hichilema defeated the incumbent in 2021¹³. The 2026 election tested that record, with fraud allegations from his challenger⁸. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A country used to changing its rulers by ballot.

Why does the world need this country?

Zambia is a small economy, about US$42.4 billion in 2026³. Its relevance comes from copper, the mineral its economy has relied on since the 1920s¹⁰, and from being a test case for the restructuring of African debt, completed with Eurobond holders in 2024⁶. Fitch credits a rebound in copper production and high prices for its improved external position⁶. It has little weight beyond Southern Africa.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: high copper output and prices, which drive its current account⁶; continued fiscal discipline to bring debt down to 82.1% of GDP in 2026³; and to avoid another default. Want: further rating upgrades, which Fitch ties to fiscal consolidation and reserves⁶; and investment in its mines. Fear: a fall in copper prices¹¹; fiscal slippage after the 2026 election, a risk Fitch flagged⁶; and political tension after the disputed vote⁸.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Zambia deals with all comers. Its debt restructuring brought together commercial, bilateral and multilateral creditors, and it has now normalised relations with a significant majority of its commercial creditors⁶. Its copper attracts investors from both East and West. Detailed, sourced data on its relations with China, the United States and its neighbours was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. A small state with options, because it has something others want.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Zambia's armed forces are small and face no serious external threat. SIPRI puts military spending at 1.26% of GDP in 2025⁴, on an economy of about US$42.4 billion³. It has been at peace since independence in 1964⁹. Data on readiness and equipment was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Adequate for a peaceful, landlocked state; no regional force.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Zambia is climbing out of a hole. The IMF expects government debt to fall from 136.8% of GDP in 2023 to 82.1% in 2026 and 77.0% in 2027, and growth to rise from 3.8% in 2025 to 5.6% in 2026³. Fitch's upgrade from default to B- in November 2025 confirmed the turn⁶. The deficit is forecast to widen to 5.4% of GDP in the election year 2026³, the risk Fitch had warned of⁶. Improving, from a low base.