Belarus

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map puts Belarus between Russia and the West, and it has paid for it. Its lands passed from the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth to the Russian Empire after the partitions of Poland⁷. German occupation in the Second World War devastated it⁷. The Chernobyl disaster left about a quarter of its territory needing permanent radiation monitoring⁷. Today it borders Ukraine and NATO members, which makes it a staging ground for Russia⁸. A corridor between powers, used by the stronger one.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about nine million and falling, from 9.18 million in 2023 to 9.08 million in 2025, with a median age of about 42^9,1,2. Unemployment is low, at 2.5% in 2025, which points to a tight labour market⁹. Many of its most active citizens have been jailed or forced abroad: in December 2025 alone 123 prisoners were expelled to Ukraine and Lithuania⁵. Data on skills and emigration was not gathered, hence medium confidence. An ageing people whose dissenters are exported.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are weak and getting weaker. Belarus scored 31 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down two points, ranking 124th of 182⁶. Courts serve the government: political prisoners face new trumped-up charges that extend their sentences, and prosecutions over the 2020 protests continue⁵. Survey data on trust and work norms was not gathered, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Lukashenko has kept power and lost independence. In power since 1994, he claimed victory again in January 2025 in an election that violated international standards^7,5. He allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine from Belarus in 2022, but has not sent his own army to fight⁸. He has opened talks with Washington while releasing dozens of prisoners by pardon and expelling 123 in December 2025^8,5. The economy has slowed to 1.3% growth⁹. A survivor, not a builder.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Belarus is orderly, by force. The protests of 2020, the largest of Lukashenko's rule, were followed by prosecutions that continue, and at least 1,110 people were held on political grounds in December 2025^7,5. Citizens who reported Russian troop movements were charged with aiding extremism⁵. There is no open conflict on its territory, though Russia stations forces and missiles there⁸. Crime data was not gathered, hence medium confidence. Calm streets, full prisons.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Belarus is quiet, not united. The disputed 2020 election set off the largest protests of Lukashenko's rule, a sign of how many rejected him⁷. Since then dissent has been jailed or expelled⁵. Opposition to the country's role in Russia's war is prosecuted⁵. Survey data on social trust cannot be gathered freely, hence low confidence. A society held together by fear, with its divisions hidden.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Belarus as a piece on Russia's board. Its territory lets Russia threaten NATO's eastern members: Moscow deployed nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles there in December 2025 to strike targets across Europe⁸. It was the route for Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine⁸. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$108bn³. Relevant for the weapons on its soil, not for itself.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: Russian markets and energy, on which its economy rests; it gained from supplying oil products to Russia after refinery attacks⁹. Want: regime survival above all, which Lukashenko has secured through repression and Russian support^5,8; and some contact with Washington, pursued alongside prisoner releases^5,8. Fear: a repeat of the 2020 protests⁷; being drawn into fighting in Ukraine with its own troops⁸; and absorption by Russia⁸.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Belarus has no balance left; it is Russia's client. It gave up the Soviet nuclear arsenal in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum, and now hosts Russia's nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles^7,8. Russia's forces used its territory to invade Ukraine and continue to use it^8,5. Its only hedge is talks with the United States, held alongside prisoner releases^8,5. A state whose foreign policy is set largely in Moscow.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Belarus's own forces count for little; Russia's on its soil count for much. SIPRI puts military spending at about 2.4% of GDP in 2025, on an economy of about US$108bn^4,3. It hosts Russia's Oreshnik missiles and allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine from its territory, but has not sent its own army⁸. Readiness data was not gathered, hence low confidence. Its security is Russia's to provide, and to withdraw.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Belarus is slowing. Growth fell from 4.3% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, and the wiiw expects it to cool to 1–1.5% in 2027–2028 with inflation of 5–6%⁹. Its population is shrinking⁹. Politically it is locked in place: the same leader since 1994, more than a thousand political prisoners, and Russian missiles on its soil^7,5,8. A state sinking deeper into dependence.