Burundi

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Burundi is one of the smallest countries in Africa, landlocked in the Great Rift Valley between Rwanda, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with Lake Tanganyika on its south-western border⁶. Its land is used mostly for subsistence farming and grazing, and by 2005 less than 6% was covered by trees⁶. It is densely populated, and only 13.4% of people lived in towns in 2019⁶. Coffee and tea earn 90% of its foreign exchange⁶. Little land, too many people on it, and no coast.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Burundi's people are very young, with a median age of about 16.6², and the poorest in the world by GDP per head, about US$510^3,6. It has the worst hunger and malnourishment of all 120 countries in the Global Hunger Index, and 56.8% of children under five are chronically malnourished⁶. Most of its roughly 14 million people earn less than US$3 a day⁸, and many young people emigrate⁶. A population whose basic needs are not met.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits of clean government are weak. Transparency International scored Burundi 17 in 2025, ranking 167th of 182⁷. The ruling CNDD-FDD is widely accused of authoritarian governance and a poor human rights record⁶. Burundi was the first country in the world to leave the International Criminal Court, in 2017⁶. In 2025 the president complained that foreign currency and fuel end up on the black market and officials will not name those responsible⁸. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, President Évariste Ndayishimiye, hand-picked by the ruling party in 2020⁶, has eased the isolation of the Nkurunziza years⁸ but not delivered results. A fuel shortage has paralysed the country for nearly three years, and in 2025 he accused officials of leading the nation to its death⁸, a sign that his government does not control its own administration. Inflation reached 34.0% in 2025³. Growth of about 4%³ has not lifted most people above US$3 a day⁸. Words of reform, little delivery.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Burundi has avoided civil war since the 12-year conflict ended with the 2005 constitution⁶. But its order is fragile and enforced. Protests in April 2015 over President Nkurunziza's third term led to years of unrest, and a UN report in 2017 accused the state of extrajudicial killings, torture and sexual violence⁶. Comparable crime data was not gathered for this assessment. Peace without the rule of law.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Burundi's population is about 81% Hutu, 18% Tutsi and under 1% Twa⁶, and its modern history is one of ethnic killing: the army's mass killings of Hutus in 1972 and the killing of Tutsis in 1993 are both described as genocides by an international inquiry⁶. About 250,000 people died in conflicts between 1962 and 1993⁶. The 2005 constitution set ethnic quotas for government posts⁶. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment. A truce between communities more than a shared nation.

Why does the world need this country?

Burundi carries almost no weight beyond its borders. Its economy is about US$7.6 billion³, and it depends heavily on aid from donors⁶. Its relevance is as a player in the Great Lakes conflicts: it has thousands of troops in South Kivu supporting the Congolese army⁶, and it has served in African Union missions, including in Somalia⁶. A small state that matters only as part of a dangerous neighbourhood.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: fuel and foreign currency, whose shortage has paralysed the economy⁸; food for a population with the world's worst hunger⁶; and continued donor aid, on which it depends⁶. Want: higher coffee and tea earnings, its main exports⁶; a defeat of the Rwandan-backed M23 in Congo⁶. Fear: a regional war in Kivu that draws in Burundi and Rwanda⁶; a return to ethnic violence; and destabilisation from Rwanda, which Burundi accused of backing a 2015 coup attempt⁶.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Burundi's main rival is Rwanda, which it accused of backing a 2015 coup attempt⁶. Its main partner is the Congolese government: it deployed thousands of soldiers to assist the Congolese army in South Kivu, as the fall of Goma in January 2025 raised fears of a regional war involving Rwanda and Burundi⁶. It belongs to the East African Community and the African Union⁶. Its president has ended some of the isolation of the Nkurunziza years⁸. A weak state on the losing side of a regional contest.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Burundi's army is small but used. SIPRI puts military spending at 3.24% of GDP in 2025⁴, a heavy burden on an economy of about US$7.6 billion³. It has served in African Union peacekeeping in Somalia and has deployed thousands of soldiers to South Kivu to support the Congolese army⁶. It fought a 12-year civil war at home⁶. A battle-hardened force without the money or equipment to project power.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Burundi is not rising. The IMF records growth of 4.1% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025, with 3.6% forecast for 2026³, from the lowest base in the world. Inflation reached 34.0% in 2025³, and a fuel shortage has paralysed the country for nearly three years⁸. Debt has fallen from 68.5% of GDP in 2022 to 42.0% in 2025³. Slow growth that leaves most people as poor as before.