Madagascar

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map offers more than the country has used. Madagascar is the world's fifth-largest island, in the Indian Ocean off southern Africa⁶. It has minerals: a nickel and cobalt mine opened at Tamatave in 2007 was said to be the largest of its kind in the world⁹, and nickel and vanilla are among its key exports⁶. Its weaknesses are as large. Cyclones and droughts strike repeatedly⁶; two cyclones hit in the first quarter of 2026⁶, and Cyclone Ivan in 2008 left more than 330,000 homeless⁹. Its infrastructure is weak across a vast territory⁶. A rich island, battered by weather and held back by distance.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is large, young and very poor. About 33.5 million people live here, with a median age of about 19.4, growing 2.4% a year^1,2,6. Poverty was estimated at 66.5% in 2025, and urban living standards have deteriorated significantly over the past decade⁶. Human capital is among the lowest in the world, with a Human Capital Index of 0.39⁶. The ILO's modelled unemployment rate is 3.0%⁵, a figure that says nothing about the subsistence farming most people depend on⁶. Income per head is about US$650³. A population growing faster than the state's ability to educate or employ it.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are weak. Madagascar scored 25 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down one point, ranking 148th of 182⁷. The World Bank lists governance among the reforms most needed⁶. Politics has repeatedly been settled in the street and then ratified by soldiers or judges: in 2002 a disputed election led to seven months of crisis, and in 2009 Rajoelina took power with military and high court backing after violent protests⁹. Yet there is a civic energy too: unions, civic groups and young people organised the 2025 protests¹¹. Survey data on trust and work norms is limited, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Colonel Michael Randrianirina's year in power has produced plans more than results. Sworn in by the High Constitutional Court in October 2025, he promised to reform the country's administrative, socioeconomic and political systems⁸. In March 2026 he dismissed the prime minister and cabinet he had appointed, without giving a reason¹⁰. His roadmap promises consultations to the end of 2026, a new constitution and a presidential election in the last quarter of 2027¹⁰. He has courted Moscow and Paris alike¹⁰. The economy is recovering after a difficult start to 2026⁶. The previous government's failure to keep water and power flowing is what ended it⁸. Promising, but not yet proven.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Order in Madagascar is brittle. The 2025 protests over power and water shortages turned deadly, with the UN reporting at least 22 killed and more than 100 injured⁸. An elite army unit then sided with the protesters, the president fled, and the military took power, dissolving all institutions except the National Assembly^11,8. The colonel says the Constitutional Court transferred power to him; the African Union called it a coup and suspended the country^10,11. Since independence, the country has had a history of coups and political crises¹¹. Corruption perceptions are poor, at 25⁷. Order that breaks when the lights go out.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Madagascar holds together as a nation, but its politics fracture. Its crises have pitted rival claimants against each other, from the seven-month stand-off between Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana in 2002 to Rajoelina's seizure of power in 2009⁹. The 2025 uprising added a generational fault line: youth groups calling themselves Gen Z Madagascar led protests demanding better government and jobs¹¹. Rising urban poverty is the sharpest economic divide⁶. The military government says it will draft a new constitution with all the nation's driving forces⁸. Divided, and not yet reconciled by the new order.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs modest things from Madagascar. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$21bn³. Its nickel, cobalt and vanilla are its main draws, though exports of key commodities were subdued in 2026^9,6. Its position in the Indian Ocean gives it some strategic interest: Russia and France both courted the new leader in 2026¹⁰, and the United States, the European Union, Russia and France all sent delegations to his swearing-in⁸. Peripheral, but with minerals and a location others find worth a visit.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: electricity and water, whose failure brought down the last government⁸, and investment in energy, transport and digital infrastructure⁶. Need: continued World Bank and donor finance; the World Bank portfolio totalled US$4.5bn in September 2026⁶. Want, for the transitional government: recognition and readmission to the African Union¹¹, a new constitution and an election in late 2027 on its own timetable¹⁰, and balanced partnerships with Russia and France¹⁰. Fear: cyclones and droughts⁶, another round of protests if services fail⁸, and high inflation, which reached 8.6% in June 2026⁶.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Madagascar has no patron and is shopping for several. Within weeks of the takeover the African Union suspended it¹¹. The new leader then visited Moscow, where Putin received him and he declared a new era of cooperation, and Paris, where he and Macron announced a renewed and balanced partnership with the former colonial power¹⁰. The United States has been a donor: in 2005 Madagascar was the first country to receive aid under a US scheme rewarding democracy and market reforms⁹. The World Bank remains its main lender⁶. A small player playing the field, from a weak position.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Madagascar's armed forces matter inside the country, not outside it. SIPRI puts military spending at 0.62% of GDP in 2025⁴. It faces no external military threat as an island, but its army is the arbiter of its politics: an army chief took over in 1972, a naval officer took power in a coup in 1975, and Rajoelina's 2009 takeover had military backing⁹. In 2025 an elite unit, CAPSAT, decided the outcome¹¹. Data on size and readiness is scarce, hence low confidence. An army that makes presidents, not war.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Madagascar is running to stand still. Growth has averaged about 3% a year since the 2010s, insufficient to create jobs or reduce poverty with population growth of 2.4%⁶. The IMF expects 3.8% in 2026³, supported by post-cyclone reconstruction and infrastructure investment⁶. But inflation rose to 8.6% in June 2026, forcing a rate rise, and the current-account deficit remains large⁶. Poverty was estimated at 66.5% in 2025⁶. The political transition adds uncertainty until the 2027 election¹⁰. Stagnant, with a reset that has not yet shown results.