Mauritania

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Mauritania is mostly desert, with very limited arable land, about 0.4% of the total, and one of the lowest population densities in the world⁶. But the ground and the sea are rich: iron ore, gold, copper and fisheries⁶, and offshore gas from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim field shared with Senegal, in which it holds a 7% stake¹⁰. Gas production began in 2025⁶, and the BirAllah field is estimated to hold nearly 60 trillion cubic feet¹⁰. The burden of the map is the Sahel: its long border with Mali brings refugees and the risk of insurgency⁶. Climate shocks threaten its rural livelihoods⁶. A poor map made richer by what lies under the sea.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 5.5 million and young, with a median age of about 17.5^1,2; about 61% now live in towns⁶. Human capital is low: a child born today is expected to reach only 38% of their potential productivity, learning-adjusted schooling averages 4.2 years, and 25% of children are stunted⁶. Poverty fell in 2025 but is projected to rise to 24.1% in 2026 as prices climb⁶. The ILO's modelled unemployment rate is 10.3%⁵. Social assistance is relatively generous, at 7.5% of GDP, reaching 47% of the poorest fifth⁶. A young, thinly educated population, with a state beginning to spend on it.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits that matter here are institutional, and some are harsh. Mauritania scored 30 on Transparency International's 2025 index, unchanged, ranking 130th of 182⁷. Slavery was abolished in 1981 and criminalised in 2007, yet a 2023 UN report found forms of it persist in some parts of the country^10,9. Dissent on the subject is costly: in 2015 the anti-slavery campaigner Biram Ould Abeid was jailed for two years over protests⁹, and in 2014 a blogger was sentenced to death for alleged blasphemy⁹. Survey data on trust and work norms is limited, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, a former army chief re-elected in June 2024, is a steady manager^10,6. He has kept order while neighbours fell, brought the country into gas production, and kept fiscal performance strong on extractive and tax revenue^10,6. The risk of debt distress is moderate⁶. He has secured European money: the EU announced €210m in 2024 to help curb migrant departures⁸. The weaknesses are human capital, where public spending remains relatively modest⁶, and a ruling party so dominant that his re-election was widely expected¹⁰. A careful steward who has yet to show he can transform the country.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Mauritania is the Sahel's exception. It has not recorded a militant attack on its soil in recent years, and analysts credit a more professional army with an effective presence on the ground¹⁰. That was not always so: the army toppled presidents in 1978, 1984, 2005 and 2008, and al-Qaeda-linked attackers killed four French tourists in 2007⁹. Corruption perceptions remain poor, at 30 on Transparency International's index⁷, and rule of law is weakened by the persistence of practices the law forbids¹⁰. Order that has held while the region broke, with a history of breaking itself.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Mauritania's deepest fault line is a hierarchy of descent. In 1989 riots after a border dispute with Senegal saw tens of thousands of Black Mauritanians driven out of the country and hundreds killed⁹. Today rights groups say tens of thousands of Black Mauritanians still live as domestic slaves, and the main opposition candidate campaigns on their marginalisation¹⁰; slavery has been a crime since 2007¹⁰. The country also hosts some 309,000 refugees and asylum seekers, many of them from Mali⁶. No militant attack has been recorded on its soil in recent years¹⁰. Peaceful, but with old injustices unresolved.

Why does the world need this country?

Mauritania matters more each year. Its gas, shared with Senegal, has begun to flow, and the medium-term outlook rests on GTA production⁶. Europe needs it as a gatekeeper: it lies on the Atlantic route for migrants to Europe, and the EU pledged €210m in 2024 to help it deter departures⁸. The West values it as a stable ally in the fight against militants in the Sahel¹⁰. The IMF puts its 2026 GDP at about US$14.3bn³. Small, but increasingly useful to Europe.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: gas and mining revenue to keep fiscal balances strong as subsidies rise to cushion food and fuel prices⁶. Need: a quiet border with Mali, from which refugees have streamed since 2023⁶. Want: to develop the BirAllah gas field, build a gas-fired power plant, and expand gold, uranium and iron ore mining¹⁰; and European money for migration control and jobs⁸. Fear: Sahel insecurity crossing its border⁶, drought and El Niño floods⁶, and inflation eroding the gains in poverty reduction⁶.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Mauritania has chosen the West without losing its neighbours. It has remained a Western ally against militants in the region, accepting help from countries such as France, while its Sahel neighbours turned to Russia¹⁰. The EU and Spain are its partners on migration⁸. In the Western Sahara dispute it stays out: it divided the territory with Morocco in 1976 and renounced its claim in 1979⁹. Its gas partnership with Senegal ties it to its southern neighbour¹⁰. With Mali it shares a long, insecure border and a refugee burden⁶. A careful balancer with Western backing.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Mauritania's forces are small but have done what was asked of them. SIPRI puts military spending at 2.75% of GDP in 2025⁴. Analysts describe its army as more professional than its neighbours', with an effective presence on the ground, and the country has recorded no militant attack in recent years¹⁰. In 2010 it set up a joint counter-terrorism command with Mali, Niger and Algeria⁹. It accepts Western help, including from France¹⁰. Data on size and readiness is limited, hence medium confidence. Effective at home, modest beyond it.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Mauritania is moving up, slowly. Growth slowed to an estimated 3.6% in 2025, only 0.7% per head, but is projected at 4.6% in 2026 on higher gas and gold output, and at around 4.5–4.8% over the medium term⁶. Gas production has strengthened fiscal and external balances⁶. The headwinds are inflation, which accelerated sharply in 2026, a widening current-account deficit, and poverty projected to rise to 24.1%⁶. Improving, on gas that has only begun to flow.