Spain

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Spain's map is a strong asset. It is a large country of about 47.9 million people¹ on both the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, at the gateway between Europe and Africa. Its borders are secure inside the EU. Across the strait, Morocco is its leading African trading partner¹¹. Sourced data on its energy and water resources was not gathered for this assessment. A well-placed country with no serious military threat on its borders.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Spain's population is old, with a median age of about 46², and its labour market has long been weak. Unemployment fell to 9.87% in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest since 2008⁵, but remains high by European standards. The 2008 property crash led to a financial crisis that lasted until 2014, with high youth unemployment⁹. Sourced data on skills was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. An ageing workforce, now finally finding work.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean government are reasonably good but not strong. Spain scored 55 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down 1 point, ranking 49th of 182 countries⁸. Corruption within the royal family and the People's Party formed the backdrop to the protests of 2011 to 2012⁹, and cases of alleged corruption now surround the prime minister's circle⁷. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, Pedro Sánchez's government has run the economy well and the state poorly. Growth outpaced much of Europe, at 3.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, while the deficit fell to 2.4% of GDP and debt to about 100%³, and all three rating agencies upgraded Spain in 2025⁶. But its parliamentary partners refused to pass a 2026 budget, Junts is demanding elections, and cases of alleged corruption are besieging the prime minister's circle⁷. Good results, weak command.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

Spain is a stable parliamentary democracy, consolidated after the transition from Francoist dictatorship to constitutional monarchy¹². It handled the 2017 Catalan crisis through its courts and police: the Constitutional Court declared the independence referendum unconstitutional, and police from across Spain were deployed on the day¹⁰. Corruption is moderate, with a score of 55⁸. Comparable crime data was not gathered for this assessment.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Spain is held together by its constitution and pulled apart by its nations. The Catalan independence movement gained traction after the 2008 crisis⁹, and the 2017 referendum, declared unconstitutional¹⁰, was the gravest test of the state since the transition. National politics are fragmented, with a minority government dependent on regional parties⁷. Survey data on trust was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence.

Why does the world need this country?

Spain matters in Europe and beyond. Its economy is about US$2.1 trillion in 2026³, inside the EU, which it joined in 1986⁹. It is a NATO member since 1982⁹ and a bridge to Latin America and North Africa, where Morocco is its leading African trading partner¹¹. Its military and diplomatic weight remain well below its economic weight.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: a budget and a stable government, which it has lacked since its partners refused the 2026 accounts⁷; continued growth to keep cutting debt, still about 98% of GDP in 2026³; and jobs, with unemployment still near 10%⁵. Want: a larger role in the EU⁹; and stable relations with Morocco across the strait¹¹. Fear: a renewed Catalan crisis¹⁰; political paralysis⁷; and the cost of an ageing population².

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Spain is anchored in the West. It joined NATO in 1982 and the European Economic Community in 1986⁹, and its security and markets depend on both. It has deep ties to Latin America and to North Africa; Morocco is its main African trading partner¹¹. Sourced data on its positions in recent NATO and EU debates was not gathered for this assessment. Secure inside its alliances, with room to pursue its own interests.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Spain's armed forces are capable but modest for its size. SIPRI puts military spending at 2.13% of GDP in 2025⁴, at NATO's long-standing target. It is a NATO member since 1982⁹ and faces no direct military threat. Readiness and equipment data was not gathered for this assessment. Its forces are integrated into NATO structures, which is where their real weight lies. A solid European military of the second rank.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Spain is rising. The IMF records growth of 2.4% in 2023, 3.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, with 2.5% forecast for 2026, while debt falls from 105.2% of GDP in 2023 to a forecast 95.2% in 2027³. Unemployment reached its lowest level since 2008 in mid-2026⁵. All three agencies upgraded the rating in 2025⁶. The risk is political, not economic: a government that cannot pass a budget⁷.