Morocco

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

Morocco's map is a major asset. It faces Europe across the Strait of Gibraltar and holds 50 billion tonnes of phosphate rock, an estimated 68% of the world's reserves, the raw material of fertiliser; it is the second-largest producer after China¹⁴. Tanger Med, on the strait, is the largest port in Africa¹⁵. The weakness is water and weather: S&P lists agricultural volatility linked to climate change among the economy's risks⁶. The eastern border is a frontier of rivalry: Algeria broke off relations in 2021²⁵. A strategic position with a resource the world cannot do without.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

Morocco has about 38.8 million people with a median age near 30^1,2, and its human capital lags its ambitions. The 2024 census found 24.8% of Moroccans illiterate, down from 32.2% in 2014¹⁷: real progress, but nearly a quarter still cannot read. Work is scarce for the young. Unemployment was 9.5% in the second quarter of 2026, and 27.2% among those aged 15 to 24⁵. A workforce improving from a low base, not yet the skilled one that an industrial economy needs.

What habits does the society reward?

The habits behind clean, predictable government are middling. Morocco scored 39 on Transparency International's 2025 index, ranking 91st of 182 countries⁸. Fiscal habits are steadier: the IMF puts the budget deficit at 3.5% of GDP in 2025, down from 5.4% in 2022³, and S&P restored investment grade in 2025⁶. Civic engagement is thin; only 38.02% of voters turned out in September 2026⁹. Data on social trust and work norms is limited, hence low confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, the monarchy, which sets the country's direction, has delivered. Under King Mohammed VI, on the throne since 1999²³, Morocco built Africa's largest port¹⁵, regained an investment-grade rating from S&P in 2025⁶, and won Security Council backing for its autonomy plan as a basis for Western Sahara talks^12,13. Growth has run between 3.8% and 4.9% a year since 2023³. The failure is at home: in 2025 young protesters rioted over hospitals and schools while stadiums rose for the 2030 World Cup¹¹. The king's appointment of Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri as head of government in September 2026⁹ is too recent to judge.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The state controls its territory, and power changes hands in an orderly way: the September 2026 election produced a four-party coalition government within a month^9,10. Order frayed in 2025, when youth protests over health and education turned violent, with stone-throwing, burning cars and attacks on police vehicles¹¹. Corruption is a drag, with a score of 39 and a rank of 91st of 182⁸. Comparable homicide and rule-of-law data was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Firm order, resting more on the throne than on institutions.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Morocco is held together by an old monarchy and a national cause, the claim to Western Sahara, which the throne has pressed since the Green March of 1975, when about 350,000 Moroccans marched into the territory²². The strain is generational. The GenZ 212 movement, organised online in 2025, protested that the state was spending on World Cup stadiums rather than hospitals¹¹, and youth unemployment is 27.2%⁵. Only 38.02% voted in 2026⁹. Survey data on trust is limited, hence low confidence. Loyal to the state, impatient with the government.

Why does the world need this country?

Morocco matters more than its economy, about US$196 billion in 2026³, would suggest. It holds most of the world's phosphate reserves¹⁴, sits on the Strait of Gibraltar with Africa's largest port¹⁵, and will co-host the 2030 World Cup with Spain and Portugal¹⁸. Its diplomatic weight is rising on visible results: the United States recognised its sovereignty over Western Sahara in 2020²⁴, and in October 2025 the Security Council endorsed its autonomy plan as a basis for negotiations, with the support of the US, France and Britain^12,13. A middle power with leverage beyond its size.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: jobs for the young, with youth unemployment at 27.2%⁵; open access to its main markets, Spain and France¹⁶; and good harvests in a farm sector exposed to climate change⁶. Want: acceptance of its autonomy plan as the settlement in Western Sahara¹²; investment and standing from the 2030 World Cup¹⁸; and investment-grade ratings beyond S&P's, with Moody's still at Ba1^6,7. Fear: a revival of conflict over Western Sahara, where the Polisario Front rejects the autonomy plan¹²; Algeria, which broke off relations in 2021²⁵; and a repeat of the 2025 youth unrest¹¹.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Morocco balances skilfully. In December 2020 it normalised relations with Israel in a deal under which the United States recognised its sovereignty over Western Sahara²⁴. It keeps Spain and France as its main markets¹⁶, and drew on US, French and British support to pass Resolution 2797, while China and Russia abstained rather than block it^12,13. Its rival is Algeria, which broke off relations in August 2021²⁵ and which the resolution treats as a key party¹². The Polisario Front refuses talks based on the autonomy plan¹². Well placed, but the dispute is not settled.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

Morocco's armed forces are capable but not dominant. SIPRI puts its military spending at 3.54% of GDP in 2025, less than half Algeria's 8.83%⁴. Its main security asset is diplomatic: a close partnership with the United States, which recognised its claim to Western Sahara²⁴. It has no nuclear weapons. Data on readiness and equipment was not gathered for this assessment, hence low confidence. Adequate for defence, and outspent by its rival.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Morocco is rising steadily. The IMF records growth of 3.8% in 2023, 4.4% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025, and forecasts 4.5% for 2026³. Government debt has eased from 71.4% of GDP in 2022 to 66.6% in 2025³. S&P returned the country to investment grade in 2025, and Moody's moved its Ba1 rating to a positive outlook in March 2026^6,7. The risks are visible too: the IMF expects the current-account deficit to widen to 4.9% of GDP in 2026³, and growth has not yet made enough jobs for the young⁵. Rising, but not yet broadly shared.