Afghanistan

What does the map enable, and what does it threaten?

The map has made Afghanistan a battleground for others. It lies between larger powers, and British forces invaded in 1838 and 1878, the Soviet army in 1979, and US-led forces in 2001⁶. It is a transit route: the CASA-1000 project would carry power from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan through it⁴. Its border with Pakistan has been largely shut since fighting in October 2025, disrupting trade⁸. Rapid population growth and drought strain a farm economy⁴. A crossroads that others have fought over more than traded through.

Is the population growing, skilled and staying?

The population is about 45 million, with a median age of about 17^1,2. The government is wasting it. Girls and women are banned from secondary and higher education, and in 2025 universities were barred from teaching books written by women⁷. Rules requiring women to be accompanied by a male relative impede their access to work⁷. Tens of thousands of highly skilled Afghans fled after 2021⁴. More than three million have returned from Pakistan and Iran since September 2023, many forcibly, adding to pressure on jobs^7,4. Income per head has stagnated⁴. A young population denied the education it needs.

What habits does the society reward?

The institutional habits are among the worst anywhere. Afghanistan scored 16 on Transparency International's 2025 index, down one point, ranking 169th of 182⁵. Rule is by decree and religious police: the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice enforces dress and behaviour rules, and the UN documented 414 cases of corporal punishment, mostly public lashings⁷. New rules in 2025 curbed media freedom⁷. Survey data on trust and work norms is not available, hence medium confidence. This score is about institutions and social habits, not about any group.

Who rules, how are they chosen, and are they competent?

Judged by deeds, the Taliban have managed some of the economy and damaged the country. Growth recovered to 2.5% in 2024 and an expected 4.3% in 2025, with low inflation and improved revenues⁴. They have won formal recognition from Russia⁹. But they deepened restrictions on women and girls in 2025, shutting much of the workforce out^7,4. Relations with Pakistan collapsed into fighting in October 2025 and air strikes on Kabul in February 2026^8,10. A government that keeps control by excluding most of its own talent.

Is there rule of law, low corruption and predictability?

The Taliban have imposed order by force. The insurgency that dominated two decades has ended with their victory in 2021⁹. Enforcement committees raid workplaces, monitor public spaces and set up checkpoints to inspect phones⁷. But the country is not at peace. Pakistan says TTP militants attack it from Afghan soil, which the Taliban government denies, and Pakistani air strikes hit Kabul, Paktia and Kandahar in February 2026⁸. A humanitarian crisis worsened in 2025 with forced returns and aid cuts⁷. Order within, war on the border.

Where are the fault lines, and how stable are they?

Afghanistan's fault lines have fed four decades of war. After the Soviet withdrawal, civil war followed, and the Taliban seized Kabul in 1996⁶. The northern opposition fought them until 2001⁶. Today minorities face pressure: in 2025 the Taliban forcibly evicted Hazara families in Bamiyan, where local authorities restricted Shia religious practice⁷. Women are excluded from public life⁷. Survey data is unavailable, hence low confidence. A country held together by a single movement's control, not by consent.

Why does the world need this country?

The world needs Afghanistan mainly as a security risk. Its economy is cut off: the central bank's assets are frozen and the banking system is cut off from the world^4,9. Pakistan accuses it of sheltering the TTP, which has stepped up attacks since 2021⁸. Russia recognised the Taliban government in July 2025, citing cooperation on security, counter-terrorism and drug crime⁹. China, the UAE, Uzbekistan and Pakistan have accepted Taliban ambassadors⁹. A problem that its neighbours must manage, not a power.

What does it need, want and fear?

Need: aid and access to its frozen reserves and the international banking system^4,9. Need: jobs for over three million returnees and a fast-growing population^7,4. Want: international recognition, which only Russia has granted⁹; and trade and energy transit, such as CASA-1000⁴. Want, for the Taliban: rule under their own interpretation of religious law⁷. Fear: war with Pakistan, which bombed Kabul in February 2026⁸; and the loss of aid as donors cut back⁷.

Who are its patrons, rivals and hedges?

Afghanistan's room has narrowed. Pakistan, long the Taliban's closest neighbour, is now its adversary: fighting in October 2025 killed more than 70 people, a Doha-brokered ceasefire broke down, and Pakistan bombed major Afghan cities in February 2026^8,10. The Taliban have reached out to Pakistan's rival: their foreign minister visited India in October 2025¹⁰. Russia became the first state to recognise them, and China, the UAE, Uzbekistan and Pakistan accepted their ambassadors⁹. The United States keeps central bank assets frozen and sanctions some leaders⁹. A pariah with a few willing partners.

Can it deter, or does it depend on others?

The Taliban's forces won a 20-year insurgency, outlasting a US-led coalition that withdrew in 2021⁹. But they cannot defend the skies: Pakistani air strikes hit Kabul, Kandahar and Paktia in February 2026⁸. No recent figure for defence spending is available. Their strength is in irregular war on their own ground, as the Soviets and the British also found⁶. Data on their forces is poor, hence low confidence. Hard to conquer, unable to deter.

Rising, stagnant or declining, and how fast?

Judged by results, Afghanistan has stabilised at a low level. After the sharp contraction that followed August 2021, the World Bank expects growth of 4.3% in 2025 after 2.5% in 2024, supported by low inflation, better revenue and returnee demand⁴. But income per head has stagnated as the population grows rapidly, external aid is declining, and the banking sector is fragile⁴. The war with Pakistan and forced returns weigh on trade and jobs^8,7. Growth that does not keep up with the number of people.